Google+ Rolls Out Mobile, Content Recommendations for Websites

Google  (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) wants to help websites capture more mobile eyes, and for longer.

Updating its Google+ mobile features, the search giant aims to improve content suggestions for any business with a mobile website. By adding one line of Java script to the backend code, the website can configure content recommendations. In all cases, the recommended content is based on a specific page the visitor is viewing, improving the recommendations' relevancy. If mobile users are signed into Google+, users will also see when content received a "+1" or was shared by people in their circles.

The feature is already live on Forbes.com. When users visit the website now, they'll see that they can discover other articles based on Search Authorship signals and Google+ activity. So as to not interrupt the browsing experience, the discovery features appear only when people tap for more.

To experience the feature, readers should access Forbes on an iOS or Android device. More details are also available in Google's developer docs: developers.google.com/+/features/recommendations.

Snap Your Fingers: We're $400 Billion Richer

Harvard economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart came under heavy fire last week after a study in which they claimed economic growth plunges once a country's debt exceeds 90% of gross domestic product was found littered with math errors.

It turns out the study may still have been flawed even if the math were correct, because GDP is an imprecise moving target. And it's about to move even more.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced a series of changes to the way it calculates GDP that will "boost" the size of the U.S. economy by about 3%, or $400 billion.

Who knew growth was that easy? "How will YOU spend your Statistical Revision Income?" quipped economist William Easterly. 

In short, research and development will now be counted as a capital investment, rather than a cost of making goods. Investment in "artistic originals" will be counted as a fixed investment. And the amount of money pension plans promise to pay retirees will be counted as wages, not just the amount of cash companies pay into defined benefit plans. (For more detailed explanations, see here).

Most of the overall change to GDP comes from the R&D accounting shift. The rest of the changes will each have a negligible impact.

"We are carrying these major changes all the way back in time -- which for us means to 1929 -- so we are essentially rewriting economic history," Brent Moulton of the BEA told The Financial Times. This is why they call it a soft science.

None of this is new. As the economy changes, the BEA updates how it calculates the size of the economy from time to time. It added investment in computer software to its calculations in 1999. One of the main reasons for the changes is to adopt account policies consistent across the globe to make comparing different economies apples to apples. "Most other developed economies, including those of Europe, will have incorporated most of the major changes ... into their economic accounts by 2014," it writes.

To me, there are three takeaways.

One, every calculation that uses GDP as a denominator will now change. Debt-to-GDP, profits-to-GDP, government spending-to-GDP ... all of those figures will be adjusted down. The 3%-bump to GDP is large enough that it will impact the validity of some arguments. Are profits as a share of GDP really at an all-time high? Maybe not after these changes.

Two, there will be a gaggle of critics who say these changes are being made for political purposes. That's nonsense -- the changed methodologies were first presented in a 2008 paper, before the current administration was elected. The statisticians calculating these figures have a grossly difficult and imprecise job. What would be shameful is realizing the calculations are wrong and not doing anything about it in the name of "consistency."

Third, this is yet another reminder of how fallible our economic data is. Data can help push you toward one direction, but -- especially in economics -- it shouldn't ever give the false sense of watertight truth. 

What the End of Free Money Means for These 3 Tech Giants

The following video is from Wednesday's MarketFoolery podcast, in which host Chris Hill, along with analysts Jason Moser and Joe Tenebruso, discuss the top business and investing stories of the day.

Notes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve were released early. The Fed is thinking about ending its quantitative-easing policy this summer. The meeting was held before the release of weaker-than-expected jobs numbers. In this installment of MarketFoolery, our analysts discuss the investing implications for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) , Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) , and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) .

Everyone knows Amazon is the king of the retail world right now, but at its sky-high valuation, most investors are worried it's the company's share price that will get knocked down instead of its competitors'. The Motley Fool's premium report will tell you what's driving the company's growth, and fill you in on reasons to buy and reasons to sell Amazon. The report also has you covered with a full year of free analyst updates to keep you informed as the company's story changes, so click here now to read more.

The relevant video segment can be found between 0:20 and 7:36.

For the full video of today's MarketFoolery, click here.

Thomas Piketty turns down France's top honor

'I don't think it's up to a government to say who is honorable,' French economist Thomas Piketty said. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Economist Thomas Piketty has joined Jean-Paul Sartre and Marie Curie in turning down France's most prestigious award, the Legion d'Honneur.

"I don't think it's up to a government to say who is honorable," Piketty told AFP after he learned that he made the list of honorees this week.

Piketty is famous for his research on income inequality, which he argues is worsening.

His 700-page book "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" was a bestseller last year. It sold out on Amazon and spent 22 weeks on the New York Times list.

"They would do better to focus on reviving growth in France and Europe." Piketty, a professor at the Paris School of Economics, said when he declined the award. Europe is on the verge of a recession.

  Warren and Piketty on the same stage

One of Piketty's key findings is that wealth is being passed down from generation to generation. He believes the United States and other countries need more progressive tax systems.

His work has been controversial. Bill Gates, among others, said it has "flaws." Piketty will face some of his critics in a debate this weekend at the American Economic Association's annual meeting.

Jean Tirole, a Nobel prize winner in economics for his insights on business regulation, also made France's Legion award list this year.

Existing Home Sales Rise, Beat Forecast

Related XHB Buckingham Initiates Coverage On Several Homebuilders Builder Confidence Falls Slightly

The National Association of Realtors released September existing home sales, showing an annualized rate of 5.17 million units sold, versus expectations of 5.1 million and the highest reading in over a year.

Sales of existing single-family homes rose 2 percent to 4.56 million in September from the prior month, which was also the fastest pace in a year. Purchases of multi-family properties increased 5.2 percent to 610,000.

The median price of an existing home rose to $209,700, a 5.6 percent increase from last year, with the South showing the largest advance. Previously owned homes on the market rose to 2.3 million, a 6 percent increase. This represents a 5.3 month supply at current sales rates, better than last month's 5.5 month reading.

Shares in the Homebuilders ETF (NYSE: XHB) were higher by 1.5 percent at $30.46.

Posted-In: The National Association of RealtorsNews Econ #s Markets

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  Related Articles (XHB) Existing Home Sales Rise, Beat Forecast Buckingham Initiates Coverage On Several Homebuilders Builder Confidence Falls Slightly S&P 500, Homebuilders And Gold ETFs To Watch This Week Pending Home Sales Somewhat Weaker Higher Mortgage Rates Could Boost Homebuilder ETFs Around the Web, We're Loving... World Cup Championship of Binary Options!

S&P 500 Gives Up 2,000 On Volume

Related CVS CVS Health Corp Outperforms Key Peers In 2014 CVS Health Corp Shares Strongest Performer In Drug Retail Space Home Depot Investigates Potential Hacking, CVS Says Farewell to Tobacco Products (Fox Business)

Equity markets started the week sharply lower. The S&P 500 fell below the key 2,000 point level on strong strong volume as the U.S. dollar was once again rejected near 85 on the U.S. Dollar Index.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 107.7 points, or 0.62 percent, to close at 17,173. The S&P 500 dropped 16.1 points, or 0.80 percent, to close at 1,994. The Nasdaq gave up 52 points, or 1.14 percent, to close at 4,528. Top Stories

The SEC awarded the largest whistleblower reward it has ever given. An anonymous insider will be receiving $30 million for reporting fraud that would be difficult for regulators to detect, said the SEC. Whistleblowers can be paid between 10 and 30 percent of funds they help recover.

RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) reported that discussions with creditors and a major vendor to modify a “commercial relationship” have been unproductive. This comes shortly after the company suggested it may have to declare bankruptcy, a course of action Wall Street has speculated on for years.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) announced it sold more than 10 million units of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus in the device’s opening weekend. CEO Tim Cook said that sales were constrained by supply and that, “We are working hard to fill orders as quickly as possible.”

Stock Movers

Sigma-Aldrich (NASDAQ: SIAL) shares shot up 33.2 percent to $136.40 after Germany's Merck KGaA (OTC: MKGAY) announced its plans to acquire Sigma-Aldrich for $140 per share in cash.

Shares of Viasystems Group (NASDAQ: VIAS) got a boost, shooting up 35 percent to $15.80 after TTM Technologies (NASDAQ: TTMI) announced its plans to buy Viasystems for a total value of $16.46 per share.

Dresser-Rand Group (NYSE: DRC) shares were also up, gaining 2.6 percent to $81.97 after Siemens AG (OTC: SIEGY) announced its plans to acquire Dresser-Rand for $7.6 billion.

Shares of TriMas (NASDAQ: TRS) were down 10 percent to $26.59 after the company cut its full-year profit outlook. The company also announced its plans to buy Allfast Fastening Systems for around $360 million.

CARBO Ceramics (NYSE: CRR) shares tumbled 16.1 percent to $70.91 after the company provided an update concerning marketplace conditions and related impact to sales volumes.

Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) was down, falling 5.6 percent to $38.65 after Bank of America downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.

Commodities

Precious metals are mostly unchanged at the close of equities, a contrast to last week’s weakness. Gold futures were last trading 0.02 percent higher at $1,216.80 while silver futures gave up 0.11 percent to $17.83.

Although precious metals were able to hold some ground, this was not the case for energy. Crude futures dropped 0.96 percent to $91.52 with gasoline down 1.1 percent. Natural gas, however, rose 0.42 percent to $3.85.

Global Markets

Like the U.S., Asian markets started the week with a sharp downturn. The Shanghai index fell 1.7 percent with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 1.4 percent. Japan’s Nikkei fared slightly better, giving up just 0.7 percent.

Europe also finished lower. The Euro Stoxx index, which tracks 50 blue chips, sold off 0.5 percent, London’s FTSE dropped 0.9 percent and France’s CAC lost 0.4 percent.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar may have run into some resistance around 85 on the U.S. Dollar Index. The index made a high of 85 in July 2013 before falling as low as 79. Monday is the third trading day that the index has run into trouble around this level.

Posted-In: GoldEarnings News Econ #s Economics After-Hours Center Markets Movers Best of Benzinga

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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United Rentals (URI) Earnings Report: Should Investors Stay Bullish? ESSX & HEES

The Q2 2014 earnings report for equipment rental stock United Rentals, Inc (NYSE: URI), a peer or competitor of Essex Rental Corp (NASDAQ: ESSX) and H&E Equipment Services, Inc (NASDAQ: HEES), is scheduled for after the market closes on Wednesday. Aside from the United Rentals earnings report, it should be said that the Essex Rental Corp reported Q4 2013 earnings on May 7th while the estimated release date for the H&E Equipment Services, Inc Q2 2014 earnings report is August 4th. However, United Rentals' shares rose after its last earnings report plus analysts have issued bullish research notes since then.

What Should You Watch Out for With the United Rentals, Inc Earnings Report?

First, here is a quick recap of United Rentals' recent earnings history from Yahoo! Finance:

Earnings HistoryJun 13Sep 13Dec 13Mar 14

EPS Est	1.01	1.60	1.47	0.71
EPS Actual	1.12	1.63	1.59	0.90
Difference	0.11	0.03	0.12	0.19
Surprise %	10.90%	1.90%	8.20%	26.80%

 

Back in mid April, United Rentals reported first quarter total revenue of $1.178 billion which includes a 9.7% increase in rental revenue (including owned equipment rental revenue, re-rent revenue and ancillary items) to $1.005 billion verses revenue of $1.100 billion and $916 million, respectively, for the same period last year. Within rental revenue, owned equipment rental revenue increased 9.1%, reflecting year-over-year increases of 7.6% in the volume of equipment on rent and 4.3% in rental rates. On a GAAP basis, the company reported first quarter net income of $60 million, or $0.56 per diluted share, compared with $21 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, for the same period last year. The CEO commented:

"We're off to a strong start in 2014, with notable year-over-year growth in rates, time utilization and volume. Our adjusted EBITDA margin improved to over 44%, a first quarter record. Despite the headwind of a harsh winter, we strategically managed our business to capitalize on pockets of opportunity. We now see solid demand in almost every market, giving us further confidence in our full year outlook."

And:

"The feeling in the field is upbeat -- our customers and managers are bullish about business prospects, including the long-awaited recovery in commercial construction. We plan to leverage our scale in this environment and bring in about $750 million of fleet in the second quarter. The integration of our National Pump acquisition is going well, and we've opened three new specialty branches in trench safety, power and HVAC. These are just a few of the many growth initiatives that will drive our short and long-term performance."

This time around and according to the Yahoo! Finance analyst estimates page, the consensus expects revenues of $1.36 billion and EPS of $1.46 - slightly down from the EPS of $1.47 expected seven days ago and the EPS of $1.41 expected ninety days ago.

On the news front and at the beginning of this month, KeyBanc increased its price target on United Rentals as the firm expects the company to benefit from strong project activity in the Gulf Coast region plus they think this trend is underappreciated by investors. They kept a Buy rating on the shares.  

In early June, Jefferies also raised its price target for United Rentals shares to $125 citing positive US equipment residual trends and the improving macro environment. They believe growth is in the "early innings" and reiterated a Buy rating on United Rentals.

What do the United Rentals, Inc Charts Say?

The latest technical chart for United Rentals shows a stock in a strong uptrend:

United Rentals has also been a strong long term performer while H&E Equipment Services has also put in a good performance but Essex Rental Corp has been an underperformer:

The technical chart for Essex Rental Corp shows shares starting to head downward in January while H&E Equipment Services, Inc started to trend downward in April.

What Should Be Your Next Move?

Although United Rentals' shares have been strongly trending upward, investors might want to keep in mind the direction shares of Essex Rental Corp and H&E Equipment Services are heading in. With that in mind, the United Rentals earnings report and any subsequent earnings call will be worth paying attention to for any signs that a reversal might be coming.  

Why Apple Stock Is a Buy in 3 Charts

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) stock is up about 20% in the past three months. Zooming out a bit further, it's up about 55% in the past year. But this industry leader sill trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 15.3. Compare that to the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 19. Is the stock still a buy, even after the run-up?

Image source: Apple.

While I made the case a few weeks ago that Apple stock was worth $120, based on a conservative discounted cash flow analysis, probably one of the best ways to illustrate the stock's story is through charts. On that note, here are the three most relevant charts that show why the stock is a buy.

Apple's hot China market
The smartphone market is still growing rapidly. In 2013, for instance, global smartphone shipments hit 1 billion, up from 725 million in 2012, according to data from IDC. But one of the greatest opportunities for smartphone manufacturers is undoubtedly in China, the world's largest smartphone market.

And combining smartphones and tablets, the potential for smart devices in the country is simply monstrous.

Data for chart retrieved from Umeng's 2013 report on smartphones and tablets in China.

Of course Apple's smartphone and tablet businesses make up a whopping 74% of the company's total revenue, so the big growth in China in these two markets is especially encouraging for Apple investors.

But is Apple popular enough in the country to benefit from the opportunity? Absolutely. Chinese app analytics firm Umeng (via Benedict Evans) says that 27% of all smartphones sold in China in 2013 were in the $500-plus price range, and 80% of these devices were iPhones.

A conservative valuation
Almost any way you slice it, Apple stock is cheap. Even though analysts predict Apple earnings per share to grow at a rate of about 15% per year, on average, over the next five years, the stock even trades at a discount to other slow-growing cash cows in the tech sector, like Intel and Microsoft.

To illustrate, consider these three stocks, compared on price to free cash flow. The price to free cash flow metric is a useful metric to use because it levels the playing field -- especially for mature companies like these three tech giants.

AAPL Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) data by YCharts

An aggressive share repurchase program
To help boost earnings in the coming years, Apple is putting its strong cash flow to work in repurchasing its own shares. Consider the difference Apple's repurchases have made so far.

AAPL Average Diluted Shares Outstanding (Quarterly) data by YCharts

Fortunately, Apple looks poised to continue repurchasing shares over the long haul. The company announced in April that it had authorized a second significant increase to its share repurchase program, boosting it from $60 billion to $90 billion. Even more, Apple said it planned to utilize this cash by the same end date the program had when it was first announced: the end of calendar 2015.

With a huge opportunity in China, conservative valuation, and aggressive and shareholder-friendly share repurchase program, Apple stock is an excellent bet for long-term investors.

Leaked: Apple's next smart device (warning -- it may shock you)
Apple recently recruited a secret-development "dream team" to guarantee that its newest smart device was kept hidden from the public for as long as possible. But the secret is out, and some early viewers are even claiming that its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts that 485 million of these devices will be sold per year. But one small company makes this gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and to see Apple's newest smart gizmo, just click here!

May Jobs Report Brightens U.S. Economy's Prospects

Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesJob seekers at a San Francisco career fair earlier this week. WASHINGTON -- U.S. employment returned to its pre-recession peak in May with a solid pace of hiring that offered confirmation the economy has snapped back from a winter slump. Nonfarm payrolls increased 217,000 last month, the Labor Department said Friday, in line with market expectations. Data for March and April was revised to show 6,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported. "This was a very solid report with no obvious warts to detract from the underlying message of sustained improvement in economic activity," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York. May marked a fourth straight month of job gains above 200,000, a stretch last witnessed in January 2000, even though it also marked a slowdown from the 282,000 jobs created in April, when hiring was still bouncing back from a winter lull. The nation finally recouped the 8.7 million jobs lost during the recession, with 8.8 million more people working now than at the trough in February 2010. But the working age population has since increased 10.6 million and 12.8 million people have dropped out of the labor force. U.S. stocks rose on the upbeat report, while prices for Treasury debt were little changed. The dollar rose marginally against a basket of currencies. Economy Gaining Traction The pace of hiring adds to data ranging from automobile sales to services and factory sector activity that have suggested economic growth this quarter will top a 3 percent annual pace. The economy contracted at a 1 percent rate in the first three months of the year, dragged down by unusually harsh winter weather and a slow pace of inventory building by businesses. The unemployment rate held steady at a 5½ year low of 6.3 percent as some Americans who had given up the search for work resumed the hunt. A measure of underemployment that includes people who want a job but who have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time jobs fell to 12.2 percent, the lowest since October 2008. Economists expect more previously discouraged workers to re-enter the labor force over the course of the year. While that would be a sign of confidence in the labor market, it could slow the decline in the jobless rate. The long-term unemployed accounted for 34.6 percent of the 9.8 million jobless Americans, down from 35.3 percent in April. The median duration of unemployment fell to 14.6 weeks, the shortest stretch in five years and a sharp drop from April. "We are making progress, but we still have a very long way to go," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. The return of discouraged job seekers and drop in long-term unemployment will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve, which has cited low labor force participation as one of the reasons for maintaining an extraordinarily easy monetary policy. The workforce, which had declined sharply in April, increased by 192,000 people last month. That left the labor force participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, at 62.8 percent. Average hourly earnings, which are being closely watched for signs of wage pressures that could signal dwindling slack in the labor market, rose five cents, or 0.2 percent. On a year-over-year basis, earnings were up a tepid 2.1 percent, suggesting little build-up in wage inflation. But earnings in some sectors, such as mining and information services, are rising at a much faster clip. "It's a difficult time for [Fed] policymakers," said Peter Molloy, president at Edison Investment Research in New York. He said the central bank normally would be raising interest rates by now given the level of the jobless rate but wanted to go slow in the hope more Americans will re-enter the labor market. The Fed has kept benchmark overnight rates pegged at near zero since late 2008 and is not expected to begin nudging them up until well into next year. Employment gains in May were broad-based. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 10,000, expanding for the 10th straight month. Further increases are expected as auto sales outpace inventories. Construction payrolls rose by 6,000. It was the fifth consecutive month of gains, but the pace is slowing as the housing sector struggles to regain momentum. There were sturdy job gains in leisure and hospitality, and professional and businesses services. Healthcare added 33,600 workers, likely boosted by the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. Government payrolls increased 1,000, a fourth straight monthly increase. Retail employment also rose. The length of the workweek held steady at 34.5 hours, with a measure of total work effort rising by 0.2 percent. -.

Why Servicesource International Inc Shares Plummeted Today

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Servicesource International Inc (NASDAQ: SREV  ) plunged nearly 33% Friday after the recurring-revenue-management company turned in disappointing first-quarter results.

So what: Quarterly adjusted revenue rose 10% year over year, to $67.3 million, which translated to an adjusted loss of $0.07 per diluted share. Analysts, on average, were expecting a loss of $0.05 per share on sales of $68.56 million. Meanwhile, adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $6.4 million, compared with a loss of $0.5 million in the same year-ago period.

Now what: Though CEO Mike Smerklo insisted Servicesource's "market opportunity and value proposition remain strong," he also admitted first quarter revenue "came in below our expectations and we are moving aggressively to implement operational changes that will better align us with our customers."

That such changes are even required in the first place is a huge concern for long-term investors, especially considering shares already trade around 70 times next year's estimated earnings, even after today's drop. Keeping in mind that those estimates are likely to come down after today's results, I'll be watching this one from the sidelines.

Six stock picks poised for incredible growth
In the meantime, there are plenty of other great stocks in which you can put your money to work. But how can you find them? Consider the expertise of Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner, who has proved skeptics wrong, time, and time, and time again, with stock returns like 926%, 2,239%, and 4,371%. In fact, just recently, one of his favorite stocks became a 100-bagger. And he's ready to do it again. You can uncover his scientific approach to crushing the market and his carefully chosen six picks for ultimate growth instantly, because he's making this premium report free for you today. Click here now for access.

Indonesia Now Must Hope to Avoid Election Muddle

Markets are said to hate uncertainty and that is what they got from the first round of voting in Indonesia this week.  Sure enough, after the Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), fronted by Jakarta Mayor Joko Widodo, failed to pull en0ugh legislative ballots to avoid running as a coalition in the July presidential ballot, the rupiah currency declined, as did the Indonesia stock index until a Friday uptick.

With the reformist mayor, known as Jokowi, the PDI-P was seen as having the closest thing to a popular horse in the race.  Party elder and former President Megawati had deferred to Jokowi, 52, as a hot ticket back to power after two terms under SB Yudhoyono of the Democratic  Party (no struggle). But with Indonesia's complicated mechanism for winnowing out presidential contenders, PDI-P fell just short of getting a clean berth.  That presumably would have allowed for a more clear-cut agenda to move things along in Indonesia's clog-prone national administration.

Now Jokowi, along with whatever opponents also can sufficiently hybridize to meet the support threshold., will contest the race having not only to please a broad electorate but to satisfy inter-party demands. (This usually means bartering cabinet posts.) Avoiding that fate is no guarantee of strong governance–it was hoped that Yudhoyono, aka SBY, would be decisive in his second term having received such a mandate, but he hasn't been.

Megawati's heir wants to avoid her fate. (Photo: Wikipedia)

Steve Forbes Interviews Tocqueville Asset Management's Robert Kleinschmidt

Are you looking for some stock ideas.

Tocqueville's Robert Kleinschmidt sat down with Steve Forbes to discuss some of his favorites.

Companies mentioned include Google, Microsoft and Xerox.

About the author:Canadian Valuehttp://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/

Currently 0.00/512345 Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes)

Subscribe via Email Subscribe RSS Comments Vgm - 13 hours ago

Canadian - you've posted a Jim Grant video by mistake. Can you post the Tocqueville video? Thanks

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Deere & Company Shatters EPS Estimates; Stocks Rise (DE)

Before the opening bell on Wednesday morning, Deere & Co. (DE) reported its first quarter earnings, posting a 3% rise in sales over last year’s Q1 figure. 

DE’s Earnings in Brief

Deere reported first quarter revenues of $7.65 billion, up from last year’s Q1 revenues of $7.42 billion; this was higher than analysts’ estimates of $6.62 billion. Net income attributable to Deere was also up from last year, coming in at $681 million compared to last year’s Q1 figure of $650 million. DE’s EPS came in at $1.81, far above last year’s Q1 EPS figure or $1.65, and much higher than analysts’ estimates of $1.53. Looking ahead to the full year, DE sees equipment sales decreasing 3%.

CEO Commentary

Samuel R. Allen, Deere’s chairman and CEO, had the following to say about the company’s Q1: ”With another record quarter, John Deere has started 2014 on a strong note. Our results demonstrate the adept execution of our operating and marketing plans, which are aimed at expanding our global market position and helping our customers throughout the world be more profitable and productive,” he said. “In addition, we are seeing further benefit from efforts to hold the line on costs.”

DE’s Dividend

Deere last announced a dividend raise in February 2013, when it bumped its quarterly payout to 46 cents to 51 cents. With the company’s “record quarter,” and this release blowing estimates out of the water, we will look for a dividend raise announcement in the next few weeks.

Stock Performance

Deere stock was up $1.94, or 2.22%, in pre-market trading. YTD, the company’s stock is down 3.01%.

4 Health Care Stocks to Watch

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for Repeat Gains in 2014

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently.

Natus Medical

Natus Medical (BABY) is a provider of health care products used for the screening, detection, treatment, monitoring and tracking of common medical ailments in newborn care, hearing impairment, neurological dysfunction, epilepsy, sleep disorders and balance and mobility disorders. This stock closed up 6.7% to $24.26 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 1.03 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 320,287

Volume % Change: 173%

From a technical perspective, BABY spiked sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $22 and above its 50-day moving average of $21.22 with above-average volume. This move pushed shares of BABY into breakout and new 52-week-high territory, since this stock cleared some near-term overhead resistance levels at $23.03 to $23.38. This breakout also pushed shares of BABY above its previous sideways trading pattern, which saw the stock trend between $20.56 on the downside and $23.38 on the upside.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BABY as long as it's trending above Monday's low $22.62 or above $22 and then once it sustains a move or close above Monday's high of $24.66 with volume that hits near or above 320,287 shares. If we get that move soon, then BABY will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $30 to $32.

Acadia Healthcare

Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) develops and operates inpatient psychiatric facilities, residential treatment centers, group homes and substance abuse facilities in the U.S. This stock closed up 1.2% at $48.38 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 581,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 291,456

Volume % Change: 96%

From a technical perspective, ACHC spiked modestly higher here right above some near-term support at $47 with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last six months, with shares moving higher from its low of $33.78 to its recent high of $49.14. During that uptrend, shares of ACHC have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of ACHC within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if ACHC manages to take out Monday's high of $48.99 to its 52-week-high at $49.14 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ACHC as long as it's trending above support at $47 or above its 50-day at $45.06 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 291,456 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then ACHC will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $55 to $60.

Align Technology

Align Technology (ALGN) designs, manufactures and markets a system of clear aligner therapy, intra-oral scanners and computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing digital services used in dentistry, orthodontics and dental records storage. This stock closed up 4.7% at $59.90 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 2.10 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.09 million

Volume % Change: 177%

From a technical perspective, ALGN spiked sharply higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $56.03 with above-average volume. This move pushed shares of ALGN into breakout and new 52-week-high territory, after the stock took out some past overhead resistance levels at $59.80 to $60. Shares of ALGN closed just below $60 at $59.90. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if ALGN can manage to take out Monday's high of $61.09 with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ALGN as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $56.03 and then once it sustains a move or close above Monday's intraday high of $61.09 with volume that's near or above 1.09 million shares. If we get that move soon, then ALGN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $65 to $68.

Aratana Therapeutics

Aratana Therapeutics (PETX) is focused on the licensing, development and commercialization of prescription medicines for pets in the U.S. and Europe. This stock closed up 2.9% at $19.67 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 220,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 91,441

Volume % Change: 178%

From a technical perspective, PETX spiked notably higher here back above its 50-day moving average of $19.34 with above-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of PETX within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if PETX manages to take out some past overhead resistance levels at $20.81 to $21.91 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PETX as long as it's trending above Monday's low $19.16 or above more support at $18 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that this near or above 91,441 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then PETX will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $26 to $28.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

RELATED LINKS:

>>3 Stocks Spiking on Big Volume

>>5 High-Yield Stocks Ready to Pay You More in 2014

>>5 Ways You Can Trade Like a Hedge Fund in 2014

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

Verifone Systems Inc (NYSE:PAY): What To Watch In Q4 Results?

VeriFone Systems, Inc. (NYSE:PAY) will release its fiscal fourth quarter and full-year 2013 financial results after the market closes on Dec. 17, 2013. Management will host a webcast to review the financial results on the same day at 1:30 pm (PT). This will be the first conference call for Paul Galant, who was named VeriFone CEO in September.

San Jose, California-based VeriFone, which competes with NCR Corp. (NYSE: NCR), makes global point of sale (POS) terminals and provides a wide array of hardware, service, and data security offerings that enable electronic payments processing for the global payments industry.

[Related -VeriFone Systems Inc (PAY): Buy This Leader In Mobile Payments On Its 55% Pullback]

Wall Street expects VeriFone to earn 26 cents a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The consensus estimate implies a drop of 65.8 percent from last year when it earned 76 cents a share. The company sees non-GAAP earnings of 25 cents a share for the period.

The company's quarterly earnings have managed to top Street view twice in the past four quarters, with the last quarter's earnings edging past consensus by 20 percent. Over the past 90 days, the consensus estimate remained unchanged, and in the past 30 days, one analyst raised the earnings estimate for the fourth quarter.

Quarterly revenues are estimated to fall 13.7 percent to $421.50 million from $488.56 million in the same quarter last year. VeriFone expects fourth quarter revenue of $418 million to $422 million.

[Related -Verifone Systems, Inc. (PAY) Q3 Earnings Preview: What To Expect?]

For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $1.44 a share on revenue of $1.70 billion.

Issues at VeriFone run deeper than just certification problems, as inferior products, pricing pressure, elongated sales cycle and secular headwinds towards mPOS continue to plague the company.

Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Keane believes the company might be challenged to regain prior lost market s! hare, which differs from the street's assumption that VeriFone will gain share back once certification issues are fixed.

Revenues are expected to decline double-digits organically for the third consecutive quarter due to product and distribution issues, as well as increased competitive pressure resulting in price declines.

Headwinds from the petroleum business in the US, certification issues in Canada and Europe, distributor loss in MEA, and weakness in Latin America (after accelerated move to wireless terminals over last few years) are expected to continue to weigh on the revenue growth. Pricing pressure and accelerated investment are also expected to weigh on the margins.

With conservative fourth quarter guidance, Keane sees modest upside to VeriFone's fourth quarter, but more importantly, potential for downside to street second half 2014 revenue estimates. He believes Street estimates of 10 percent organic revenue growth in the second half could prove too aggressive.

Moreover, investors will look to CEO Galant for the strategic direction. Galant would need to decide to take down the bar now or later and make the difficult transition towards a software/ services company away from hardware.

The secular disintermediation risk from the tablet-based cloud-enabled POS devices is playing out as small and medium businesses are increasingly adopting these devices for value-added services namely loyalty, offer redemption, real-time analytics, and inventory management.

First Data launched the Clover station as well as NCR, ROAM, and Shopkeep have upped their game with enhanced products and increased marketing. Large specialty retailers are also increasingly adopting mPOS to improve customer conversion. Longer-term, payments would move to a software apps based model in the cloud away from hardware and VeriFone should decide its strategy before time runs out.

Investors could focus on how the two recent acquisitions (EFTPOS New Zealand Ltd and Sektor) are impacting the top! line. The! y would also keep an eye on margins as VeriFone has been forced to cut prices as it continues to be plagued by product certifications, and competitive pressures.

In addition, the company mentioned that payment-as-a-service is growing even faster in the 11 to 13 percent range, and VeriFone believes it is well positioned in that market. Investors may want to hear how much leeway it has made into that space.

Cash flow could be another focus area. VeriFone was at risk of breaching its debt covenants in early fiscal 2014. Hence the company amended the debt covenants with its borrower in July 2013. As of July 31, the company had operating cash flow of $49 million and free cash flow of $31 million. It expects fourth quarter free cash flow of of $25 million, excluding shareholder settlement payment.

The Street would look for the first quarter forecast, and it may decide the movement of shares post results. In September, the company said it expects the first fiscal quarter of 2014 to reflect modest sequential improvement to the fourth quarter guidance.

Shares of PAY, which trade at 15.4 times its forward earnings, have gained 17 percent since its last quarterly report, yet slipped 18 percent this year. They have traded between $15.34 and $36.13 during the past 52-weeks.

4 Stocks to Buy Even When Good News Frightens the Markets

Earlier this year, the bond market freaked out when Ben Bernanke hinted that the easy-money party would be coming to an end. The yield on the three-year Treasury spiked from 0.3% in May to nearly 1% after Labor Day. Ben was clearly shocked by the market's reaction to his comments, and he's been careful to walk back, or "clarify," those remarks. Either way, the Fed hasn't come near tapering since. But now Bernanke is nearly out the door, and Janet Yellen will soon be taking over. The latest conventional wisdom is that tapering will be coming this March. We'll see about that.

But the bond market has been in a sour mood again. On Thursday, the yield on the 30-year Treasury closed at 3.92% which is its highest yield since August 1, 2011. But here's the key point: The recent sell-off in the bond market is quite different from what we saw this summer. Back then, it was the middle part of the yield curve that saw the biggest rise in rates. This reflected the belief that short-term interest rates were going to rise sooner than folks had expected.

This time, the rise in rates has largely been at the long end of the curve. In fact, the middle part of the curve hasn't moved very much at all. The three-year is hovering just over 0.6% which is well below its peak from September.

This is an important change in the market's attitude, and I think it's because the current bond market downturn is due to a belief in stronger economic growth rather than an imminent rise in interest rates. Here's the weird part. Lower bond prices may be specifically due to a belief that the Fed will hold down rates for a while more. In other words, the Fed is working to steepen the yield curve.

So what's all this good economic news, then? Let's review.

On Monday, the November ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 57.3. That's the highest level since April 2011. Any reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding. This was the 50th time in the last 52 months that the ISM has come in above 50. Let me be clear: That isn't gangbusters, but it's not bad.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its "beige book" report, which is a survey of the U.S. economy by region. On balance, the report was encouraging, and business activity seems to be picking up, although there are still pockets of weakness.

Also on Wednesday, ADP, the private payroll firm, said that 215,000 jobs were created last month. That was 30,000 more than analysts were expecting. Then on Thursday, the number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims fell to 298,000 which is the second-lowest number since early 2007. This report tends to bounce around a lot, so it's better to look at the trend which has been heading in the right direction. It also appears that any side effects of the government shutdown have passed.

But the really big economic report is Friday's jobs report for November. The non-farm payroll report topped 200,000, which is more confirmation that the economy is ramping up.

We got more good news on Thursday when the government revised its Q3 GDP report significantly higher. The initial report came in at 2.8%, but now the number crunchers say the economy grew by 3.6% last quarter. Over the last 30 quarters, that's the economy's fifth-strongest quarter. But one downside to the GDP revisions is that a good portion of that economic activity was restocking shelves, and not so much people buying stuff off those shelves. However, this was the third quarter in a row that economic growth has accelerated.

These encouraging economic reports aren't much of a surprise to us. I've recently discussed how the rally has been led by cyclical stocks, and that's usually a precursor of good economic news. By cyclical, I mean industries that are heavily tied to the economic cycle. When things get tight, folks keep buying toothpaste, but new houses? Not so much. Last Wednesday, the relative strength of the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index reached its highest point since July 2011. For the last 16 months in particular, cyclical stocks, consumer discretionaries especially, have been grabbing the lion's share of the market's gains.

I've often noted that the current rally is the most-hated rally in Wall Street's history. OK, perhaps that's a bit of an overstatement. Still, I suspect that a major reason for this hatred isn't that the bears haven't seen drops; it's that they have. Consider that during the current rally, which began in March 2009, we've seen separate drops of 5.6%, 5.8%, 6.4%, 7.1%, 7.7%, 8.1%, 9.9%, 16.0% and 19.4%. Every single one has led to a new high. Every single one.

What's also interesting is the breadth of this market. The top 10 point contributors in the S&P 500 have accounted for 18% of this year's gain. In 1999, that number was 65%. The tech bubble was created by a very small number of stocks. That's not what's happening now. Nor have we run out of room. Since World War II, the S&P 500 has gained 20% or more 18 times. The following year's gain has averaged 10%.

Here's my take

No, I'm not going to predict a crash. That's a pointless endeavor. I do, however, caution investors not to expect the kinds of easy gains we've seen this year to continue. The simple fact is those higher bond yields I talked about are more attractive to investors, and that's stiffer competition for stocks; that's what's driving the "good news is bad news" dynamic.

And yes, there's still the issue of the Fed's endlessly-discussed taper, but that's probably a few months off at the earliest. I think that explains the recent downturn in gold. The yellow metal is closing in on a three-year low, and this will be its first yearly loss since 2000.

For now, a lot of healthcare names look very good here, and much of the tech sector has been left out of the rally. I continue to like Oracle (ORCL). The company has another earnings report later this month. Ford (F) is also cheap here. The automaker had another strong month for sales. Truck sales are at a nine-year high.

Both Cognizant Technology (CTSH) and DirecTV (DTV) are good buys. Cognizant said this week it plans to hire 10,000 workers in the U.S. over the next three years. Weak companies don't say things like that. (By the way, here's a good profile of Cognizant's CEO Frank D'Souza.)

Female Merrill Lynch advisers object to gender bias settlement

A group of nearly four dozen female Merrill Lynch advisers are opposing a proposed $39 million settlement in response to gender bias accusations, saying that the brokerage firm's payout represents “a huge step backwards.”

The advisers' 25-page filing, which was filed in federal court on Friday, said that the settlement filed Sept. 9 was “meager” and “unfair,” and “will enshrine the very policy that the plaintiffs challenged in this lawsuit as discriminatory.”

(Why aren't there more female advisers?)

At issue are two Merrill Lynch policies that the advisers say are discriminatory and will continue despite the settlement.

The first is a compensation policy that the advisers say is partly based on past performance and, as a result, favors men.

The second is a policy that the advisers said favors teams, which historically excluded women who were thought to be underperforming.

A complaint filed in October 2011 said that Merrill Lynch ranks high-producing advisers first on the distribution list to receive accounts, and that a greater number of accounts and more of the lucrative accounts are given to men.

“These additional accounts and business opportunities, as well as house account production credits, directly and indirectly increase the male [advisers'] production and place male [advisers] in an even better position for the next round of account distributions based on systematically documented and unvalidated criteria,” the complaint said.

(Firms rally for female adviser advancement)

The filing contends that the settlement on gender bias issues could erode the benefits of a larger $160 million settlement, McReynolds v. Merrill Lynch, for African American women. That settlement, which is also being considered in court, deals with allegations of racial bias against African-American brokers and trainees.

The objection, which was first reported on Monday afternoon by Law360, could influence the judge tasked with considering the settlement at a Dec. 19 hearing.

Merrill parent Bank of America Corp., which has hailed the settlement as enriching opportunities for women to advance as advisers, declined to comment through a spokesman, William