Thursday, July 31, 2014

How to Qualify for the Lowest Home Loan Rates


Credit: Lending Memo via Flickr.

When the time comes for you to buy a new home or take out a home equity loan, you'll want to be offered the lowest possible home loan rates. Here are some tips on securing low home loan rates.

First, you can get a sense of what the prevailing rates are for mortgages and home loans at websites such as Bankrate.com. The national average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was recently 4.26%, and the average rate for a $30,000 home equity line of credit, or HELOC, was 4.54%. Note that the HELOC quote is based on your FICO score, which is a good reminder that our credit scores have a lot to do with the home loan rates we're offered.

At Bankrate.com, you can even look up best home loan rates in specific regions and for different kinds of credit scores. For instance, let's see what rates are listed for a $165,000 30-year fixed-rate loan with 20% down and no points in Akron, Ohio. For someone with a FICO score of 740 or higher, Capital One Financial quotes 4.25%. With a score of 700 to 719, the bank's quote is 4.375%. If your score is much lower, between 660 and 679, the quote is 4.625%.

Better home loan rates via better credit scores

Clearly, having a solid credit score is key to obtaining low home loan rates. Even if your score is pretty good already, you might be able to increase it and thereby save money.

Before you plan to apply for your big loan, get a copy of your credit report (for free if possible) and have any errors fixed. If a collection agency is after you, you'd do well to clear that debt. Paying down credit card debt is useful, too, as lenders like to see that you're not anywhere close to maxing out your total credit limit (from all your cards combined).

More tips for getting better home loan rates

Here are a few other strategies to consider:

Shop around. Each lender is likely to view your credit a little differently and offer you a different rate. Ask about any special discounts available, too. Some banks, for example, might lower your rate if you bank with them and have your monthly payments automatically withdrawn from your account. Check rates at local credit unions, too, as they're often lower. When you shop around, aim to visit different lenders on the same day or within a few days, as rates change daily -- and can even change significantly between morning and night. Compare fees when you're shopping around, too. Make sure you're comparing apples to apples. Consider putting more down on a home purchase. Lenders give better home loan rates to those who are borrowing 75% or less of a home's value, so even the standard 20%-down approach, which gives you a loan-to-value ratio of 80, isn't ideal. Consider paying "points" if you can and it makes sense. A point is 1% of your loan amount, and by paying one or fewer points, you can lower the home loan rates you're offered. With mortgages, the longer you expect to stay in the home, the more sense this strategy makes. Think about what kind of loan you really need and want, as that will influence the home loan rates you get. With mortgages, for example, you'll get lower rates for 15-year loans than for 30-year loans, and lower rates for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) than for fixed-rate mortgages. ARMs typically feature a low introductory rate locked in for a few years, and if you're not planning to hold your mortgage too long, an ARM can be a smart choice. Meanwhile, home equity loans usually feature a fixed rate, while home equity lines of credit offer fluctuating rates.

We've been enjoying a long period of extremely low interest rates, but don't just settle for a seemingly good rate. A little legwork and research can get you even better home loan rates.

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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Family Dollar/Dollar Tree Merger Announced

Discount store Family Dollar (FDO) has finally put itself up for sale after much pressure from billionaire investor Carl Icahn (Trades, Portfolio), who recently acquired a 9.4% stake in the company. Icahn reportedly sent a letter to Family Dollar's CEO demanding that the company offer itself for sale, which he believes would greatly improve the company's performance and bring the company up to speed with other big name rivals. The billionaire investor went as far as to threatening to disperse his demands and recommendations to the company's shareholders, and to make an attempt at pushing out the entire board of directors. Needless to say, Icahn firmly believed that Family Dollar's management team was not up to the task of managing the organization's operations. The discount chain obviously recognized problems within the business when it closed a large number of stores, and announced plans to close almost 400 more in the third and fourth quarter of 2014.

On July 28, Dollar Tree (DLTR) announced that it will be buying rival Family Dollar for a total of $9.2 billion (including debt). Icahn had originally suggested that Family Dollar be bought out by leader Dollar General, but shortly after stated that the recent announcement of the retirement of Dollar General's CEO would cause disruptions in his plan of merging the two companies. The announced deal gives Dollar Tree over 13,000 stores in the 48 states and Canada, as well as more than $18 billion in sales. This pushes Dollar Tree above and beyond major rival Dollar General, which last year had $17.5 billion in sales and 11,338 current locations. There has also been much talk about the impact this merger will have on the giant Wal-Mart (WMT), which generally focuses on low-income consumers by offering more items for under $1.

According to the agreement, Dollar Tree will be paying $74.50 in cash and stock for Family Dollar. Shareholders are set to receive $59.60 in cash, as well as $14.90 in Dollar Tree stock per share. The company is said to continue operating both the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores.

But will this merger be good for consumers? Experts have said that in general, mergers made by companies in the same consumer retail business are generally poor for the consumer. By having more rivals in the same business, competition arises which ultimately drives prices down. The low prices previously seen by Dollar Tree may not be as low as they once were after there are fewer competitors.

End Notes

Disclosure: No current position held at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas in this article are for informational and educational purposes only. They are not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock at any given time. As always, it is imperative for each individual investor to do their own due diligence and perform their own research on any and all stocks before making an investment decision.

About the author:David KerrPreviously licensed to sell securities, David now utilizes his knowledge and experience solely for the purpose of growing his own personal portfolio and educating those around him.
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Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity Q1 2014 Review

The first quarter provided very attractive returns for investors, as balanced funds performed well. The Canadian stock market led the way with a 6% return as the Materials sector rebounded from a weak 2013. The S&P500, in Canadian dollars, almost matched the S&P/TSX Composite with a return of 5.8% and the EAFE index, in Canadian dollars, was not far behind returning 4.6%. Bond yields retraced some of their 2013 increases in January, giving bond investors close to 3% returns for the quarter.

Over the past 12 months, bond markets have primarily been driven by expectations for the anticipated path towards interest rate normalization. On March 19, new Federal Reserve Bank chair Janet Yellen provided further clarity as to how that path could evolve. Her comments indicated that the current bond purchase program should end sometime this Fall. This was somewhat earlier than previous expectations that the program would end closer to December. In addition, during the press conference she explained that a reasonable expectation for the gap between the end of bond buying and the beginning of interest rate hikes should be approximately six months.

So where do we go from here? Assuming the Federal Reserve begins to hike interest rates in mid- 2015, we would expect this tightening cycle to be somewhat slower and end at a somewhat lower level than previous tightening cycles. The U.S. economy continues to struggle from the residual impact of debt deleveraging and labour market conditions that point to the challenges from having people unemployed for a long time and part time workers becoming more prevalent. With inflation remaining low, we expect a normal level of short term rates should be 3% and that this normalization process could take as long as three years.

In terms of bond markets, the most likely scenario will be a gradual increase in rates, but with longer term interest rates increasing much less than shorter term interest rates. Despite a gradual improvement in the economy, we do not expect to be in the position where borrowers can withstand a significant increase to the real cost of funds. In addition, the net borrowing of the U.S. government will have declined to the point that we expect the reduced bond buying by the Fed will be more than offset by purchases from households and foreigners.

In an environment of interest rate normalization, we expect stock markets to perform reasonably well. That being said, an environment of increasing interest rates will most likely put pressure on price earnings multiples for some companies, especially those that have been valued as "fixed income surrogates". Our main strength when managing equities for our clients is stock-picking, rather than forecasting the broad markets, and we continue to evaluate each company on its own merits. In some markets, such as the United States, we have found it more challenging to find as many bargain companies, but overall we continue to find value and believe it will become more of a stock picker's market.

Many of the investments in our U.S. Equity Fund are best-in-class companies with long established records of industry leading performance. In our view, the portfolio is well positioned for the inevitable economic and stock market vacillations to come and we view the portfolio risk as modest. Notably, in the last couple of weeks several high profile equities, such as Facebook (FB), Tesla (TSLA), LinkedIn (LNKD) and Amazon (AMZN) sold off sharply. We have no idea as to whether or not this will continue, but it is important to recognize that we do not own such names, either due to unestablished business performance or lofty valuations.

Our Canadian Equity Fund is similarly well positioned, with companies trading at valuations that we believe understate their true prospects. For example, Aimia (TSX:AIM), the brand loyalty business that runs Aeroplan, is a company whose value is not fully appreciated by the market today. The program has been reset and enhanced, two key credit card partners are in place, and risks have been reduced due to a more solid "runway" going forward with Air Canada.

We believe a balanced approach will continue to be rewarding for long-term investors.

Canadian Equity Fund

The TSX Composite Index began 2014 positively, rising 6.1% during the first quarter. Global equity market performances were mixed, with improving economic data out of the U.S. and Europe offset by weaker than expected growth in emerging markets and uncertainties surrounding the political state of affairs in Russia/Ukraine. Despite these market concerns, markets continue to move in a positive direction.

Our Canadian Equity Fund delivered a solid performance in the first quarter, gaining 6.0% after fees and expenses. While the performance was broadly based, with 25% of the companies in the portfolio gaining more than 10% in the quarter, stock selection in the Energy sector was particularly strong.

Three stocks that performed especially well were NuVista (TSX:NVA) (+34.2%), Cardinal Energy (TSX:CJ) (+32.7%) and Encana (TSX:ECA) (+23.5%).

In terms of sector exposures, our Fund's underweight position in the Telecommunications sector and overweight position in the Utilities sector helped relative performance in the quarter. Conversely, our fund's overweight position in Industrials and underweight position in the Materials sector hurt performance. Our Canadian Equity Fund's lack of exposure to gold stocks hurt performance in the first quarter, as the TSX Gold & Precious Metals sub-index rose 13.3% on a sharp bounce in gold bullion prices. After an abysmal performance in 2013, a relief rally in gold could have been expected, but we continue to believe that gold stocks are expensive and find better value elsewhere in our investment universe.

In summary, our Canadian Equity Fund had a good start to 2014. Despite its strong performance in 2013, we believe that returns from our fund should outpace fixed income alternatives over a three year investment time horizon.

Continue reading here.

Also check out: Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity Undervalued Stocks Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity Top Growth Companies Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Leith Wheeler Canadian Equity keeps buying
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Monday, July 28, 2014

3 Biotech Stocks Under $10 to Trade for Breakouts

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

Read More: Warren Buffett's Top 25 Stocks for 2014

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

Read More: 5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside.

Codexis

Codexis (CDXS) develops biocatalysts for the pharmaceutical and fine chemicals markets in the U.S., Europe and Asia. This stock closed up 1% to $1.94 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.90-$1.97

52-Week Range: $1.24-$2.65

Thursday's Volume: 388,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 164,419

From a technical perspective, CDXS trended modestly higher here right off some near-term support at $1.90 with strong upside volume flows. This stock recently gapped up sharply higher from $1.38 to $2.65 with monster upside volume. This minor spike to the upside on Thursday is starting to push shares of CDXS within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if CDXS manages to take out some key near-term overhead resistance at $2 with high volume.

Read More: 5 Large-Cap Stocks to Trade for Earnings Season Gains

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CDXS as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $1.90 or at $1.80 to $1.77 and then once it sustains a move or close above $2 with volume that hits near or above 164,419 shares. If that breakout gets underway soon, then CDXS will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $2.65.

Achillion Pharmaceuticals

Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN), a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes anti-infective drug therapies in the U.S. and internationally. This stock closed up 5.6% to $7.30 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $6.91-$7.40

52-Week Range: $2.26-$8.61

Thursday's Volume: 3.11 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 6.33 million

From a technical perspective, ACHN spiked sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $6.61 with lighter-than-average volume. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $6.65 to $6.61. Following that bottom, shares of ACHN have now started trend higher and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if ACHN manages to take out Thursday's intraday high of $7.40 to some more near-term overhead resistance at $7.96 with high volume.

Read More: 4 Biotech Stocks Breaking Out on Big Volume

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ACHN as long as it's trending above Thursday's intraday low of $6.91 or above more near-term support at $6.61 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 6.33 million shares. If that breakout kicks off soon, then ACHN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $8.61.

Biota Pharmaceuticals

Biota Pharmaceuticals (BOTA), a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of anti-infective products in Australia. This stock closed up 1.3% to $3.08 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $2.99-$3.12

52-Week Range: $2.35-$7.07

Thursday's Volume: 45,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 149,148

From a technical perspective, BOTA bounced modestly higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $2.93 with lighter-than-average volume. This small spike to the upside on Thursday is starting to push shares of BOTA within range of triggering a big breakout trades . That trade will hit if BOTA manages to take out Thursday's intraday high of $3.12 to some more near-term overhead resistance at $3.21 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BOTA as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $2.93 or above more near-term support levels at $2.88 to $2.74 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 149,148 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then BOTA will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $3.52 to its 200-day moving average at $4.34.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>3 Huge Stocks to Trade (or Not)



>>3 Stocks Spiking on Big Volume



>>Hedge Funds Hate These 5 Stocks -- Should You?

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com.

You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Sunday, July 27, 2014

Half of Households Risk Inadequate Retirement Income

A national survey of retirement readiness shows a steady and alarming rise in the proportion of Americans inadequately prepared for retirement.

Indeed, the National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI), calculated over the past three decades by the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College, now finds — for the first time — that a majority of working age U.S. households are on track to experience a shortfall in replacement income.

This deficiency, defined as income replacement rates more than 10% below pre-retirement income, has risen steadily from 31% of households in the NRRI baseline survey of 1983.

The percentage of households off track for retirement income adequacy rose to near 40% in the 1990s, to the mid-40s a decade ago and reached 53% in 2010, the last complete year for which all pertinent data on income, pensions and housing were analyzed.

A new study by CRR’s Alicia Munnell, Anthony Webb and Wenliang Hou based on these findings seeks to determine how much working-age households need to save to make up for this shortfall.

The answer varies based on income group, but is 15% of income for the typical household.

The figure is derived by investigating the savings rate required to achieve income replacement minus the amount of income households can rely on from their various retirement savings plans.

In projecting income replacement rates, the analysts look at financial assets, investment returns and housing, as well as average lifetime income, minus debt.

Assuming a household’s goal is to achieve income matching their consumption immediately prior to retirement, they estimate post-retirement income by factoring in Social Security, employer pensions and an inflation-indexed annuity, purchased with the household’s financial assets and the proceeds of a reverse mortgage.

(The authors acknowledge that these annuities are not commonly purchased, but use it as a convenient metric for attainable lifetime income.)

In calculating needed savings rates in retirement plans, the analysts come up with varying targets based on household income, with lower income households needing to save less than higher income households. That is because Social Security’s progressive structure replaces more income for lower earners.

The study finds that “a quarter of retirement income must come from retirement savings plans — that is, pensions, 401(k)s and IRAs — for low-income housholds, one third for the middle income, and half for the high income.”

To achieve that level of retirement plan assets, the average household must save 15% of income, with low-income and high-income households need to saving 11% and 16% of income, respectively.

However, because a majority of households have not saved enough, they must increase their savings in order to catch up, and that increased amount depends crucially on age.

Households in their 30s need only increase their savings rate by a manageable 7% for the typical household, by 13% for savers in their 40s, but by an “unrealistic” 29% for people in their 50s.

For that reason, the study suggests that extending their working years is a more realistic way for older households to make up that shortfall.

For illustration, the report’s authors say that an average couple planning to retire at 65 in 2040, who can expect Social Security to replace 36% of their income, need to accumulate $538,000 in their working years.

By starting saving at age 35 and earning a real return of 4% on their investments, they will need to put away 15% of their income annually to meet their goal.

“However, if they delay retirement to 70, that figure drops from 15% to 6%," the authors advise. "Starting to save earlier would bring the rate even lower.” 

---

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Saturday, July 26, 2014

2 Tech Giants to Consider for Your Portfolio

As the personal machine business is shrinking, fittings giants like International Business Machines (IBM) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) are diversifying into fresher areas to accomplish development. Among the most talked-about markets in IT solutions are digital security and distributed computing. Both these segments have been developing at a brisk pace. IBM and HP, as well as other huge companies such as Oracle and Microsoft are also moving into these markets.

IBM increasing its item portfolio by means of acquisitions

IBM is focusing on products with higher margins and higher development, such as versatile communications, distributed computing, and security solutions. The perfect approach to step into such markets is through acquisitions and partnerships. IBM's cash position has empowered the organization to make a couple of acquisitions and its established brand has helped it ink agreements with heading players. Such strategic moves of IBM will position the organization in a superior position for what's to come.

An acquisition by IBM to increase its portfolio in portable communications software was that of Xtify. A late analysis by Gartner predicts that portable installment transactions may surpass $235 billion. This is a development of 44% over last year. The rise in transactions is basically because of an increase in the amount of versatile users, a number anticipated that will achieve 245.2 million. This business sector is anticipated to be worth $998.5 billion by 2016 at a CAGR of 83.7% from 2012 to 2016.

With IBM getting Xtify, it is in a finer position to catch this blasting portable communications and payments market. The versatile analytics business is not left untouched by IBM either, as it obtained Now Factory as of late. The exponential development of versatile gaming and feature streaming will bolster the business for portable analytics software later on, and IBM is looking to make its presence felt here.

More investments from IBM

IBM's devotion to the cloud is illustrated by its investments in the stage and synergies with companies giving cloud services. The worldwide cloud business sector is anticipated to develop by 126.4%, with development in the European business sector anticipated that will be around 300%. IBM is good to go to profit by this development by wandering into Europe with its investments and partnerships.

IBM as of late declared that it is investing $8 million in Spain for cloud server farms. IBM is certain about the returns on such investments across the globe and targets around $7 billion in revenue by 2015 just from the distributed computing business sector.

IBM servers have picked up piece of the overall industry from Dell as of late, as IBM was selected as the first decision supplier by Avalon, a heading Croatian web solutions organization. IBM servers with IBM networking will now power Avalon's top of the line cloud infrastructure. Avalon serves clients in various European countries and hosts around 16,000 websites.

"The IBM solution was the best one to fit our needs," said Damir Mujic, CEO of Avalon. "IBM's System x server stage together with IBM networking provides a solid, adaptable and cost-powerful IT infrastructure that scales as we develop and can deal with diverse workloads. Likewise, with IBM we evade combination issues arising in the event that we need to manage distinctive companies conveying diverse parts of a general solution."

Subsequently, with a solid item portfolio that is developing with acquisitions, IBM looks overall positioned to catch the cloud and versatile communications markets.

HP is stepping into security solutions

Hewlett Packard is feeling the hotness as we see the PC business sector decline. The organization's future looks truly miserable. Its second from last quarter results were bad either as revenue declined 8% to $27.2 billion contrasted with last year. The organization is attempting to include a couple of high margin services to its portfolio to drive development.

To boost its performance, HP is good to go to strengthen its portfolio with security services for the web, portable, and BYOD (bring your own particular gadget) environments. In September, the organization released its Tippingpoing cutting edge firewall. Tippingpoint has a higher network security performance and control over web apps and versatile. As digital security and threats are turning into one of the significant concerns for corporate customers, Tippingpoint could profit as it addresses this business.

It would be interesting to see if HP markets Tippingpoint as a free item or joins hands with various portable companies, server farms, and application providers to boost its sales. The organization may profit in terms of sales on the off chance that it enters into partnerships.

The security market has witnessed 6.1% development this year to $2.13 billion. Analysts estimate this business sector to develop by 500% and span $10.17 billion by 2017. These figures have absolutely gotten HP's eyes and that is the reason it is strengthening its security portfolio.

Conclusion

While IBM is successfully transforming itself into a services organization, HP has just started after this course. Subsequently, conservative investors should consider IBM for their portfolio as it has $10.4 billion in cash on the asset report, pays out a profit that yields 2.10%, consistently buys back shares, and has a conservative payout proportion of 25%.

Then again, HP is running in losses and its yearly earnings development desire for the following five years is a small 0.67%. Thus, investors with a higher risk longing searching for a turnaround play could consider HP for their portfolio.

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IBM STOCK PRICE CHART 194.4 (1y: -1%) $(function(){var seriesOptions=[],yAxisOptions=[],name='IBM',display='';Highcharts.setOptions({global:{useUTC:true}});var d=new Date();$current_day=d.getDay();if($current_day==5

Former Bear Stearns CEO Ace Greenberg dies

Ace Greenberg: 60 years at Bear Stearns   Ace Greenberg: 60 years at Bear Stearns NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Alan "Ace" Greenberg, a former CEO and chairman at Bear Stearns, has died at age 86.

He was at the helm of Bear Stearns for 15 years, until 1993, and was chairman when the brokerage firm went under in 2008.

Greenberg spent decades at the brokerage firm, seeing the company grow into an industry powerhouse and through its collapse, which fueled the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession.

"In many respects, he epitomized the American dream, rising from a clerk to the corner office during his 65 years with the firm," said JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon and Mary Erdoes, head of asset management, in an email sent Friday to employees.

JPMorgan (JPM) bought Bear Stearns for $10 a share after the firm's collapse.

Greenberg was known to answer his own phone and was always at work. In a 2010 interview with CNN, he said he never missed a day of work after fighting a bout of colon cancer at age 31 -- even when he contracted malaria on a trip to Africa in 1968.

Greenberg also served as a trustee at the American Museum of Natural History, the New York Public Library, and New York University.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Starbucks Store Makeovers Are Boosting Profit Margins

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Starbucks (SBUX) aggressive store remodels are bolstering profit margins at the Seattle-based retailer. 

In an interview with TheStreet, Starbucks vice president of design for the Americas, Bill Sleeth, said the Starbucks store makeovers are rooted in having an "acute awareness of the customer" and are designed in a way that "evokes the spirit of the community."

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Sleeth shared the new store vision as seen here on his Twitter account.

Sleeth's creative team operates 18 design studios worldwide, with 14 in the Americas, attending to such details as the number of seats based on a store's square footage, using higher tables to create conversation in well-trafficked locations, and pairing round top tables with banquet seating against the wall so that customers can easily slide out to leave or return for a refill or second pastry.  The science even goes so far as to positioning tables in a manner that a person's sight lines aren't obstructed. Sleeth said the store planning is "about giving the customer a seamless experience with the barista." The executive wouldn't say how many Starbucks Americas stores have been remodeled. Since Starbucks began to significantly increase its capital expenditures beginning in early-2012, the company's gross profit margin has risen.

In the company's second fiscal quarter of 2012, Starbucks had $160.3 million in capital expenditures, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In the second quarter of its fiscal 2014, capital expenditures totaled $247.5 million. During this time period, Starbucks' gross profit margin has gone from 55.8% to 57.9%. The data suggests that locally relevant store designs are attracting new customers, and convincing them to stay longer to buy more than one cup of java. Worldwide customer traffic at Starbucks has grown every quarter from the second quarter of 2012 to the second quarter of 2014, along with average ticket. According to Bloomberg, Starbucks' same-store sales have increased for 18 straight quarters. WHY ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG, ISN'T THIS RIGHT IN THEIR PRESS RELEASES? The next set of opportunities for the Starbucks design team is licensed stores at Target  (TGT), which started to appear at the retailer in 2003. Sleeth wouldn't discuss a timeline for remodels at Target, but said the chain would like all of its stores to convey a similar customer experience. Starbucks announces fiscal third quarter earnings Thursday.   Wall Street expects earnings of 66 cents a share on revenue of $4.14 billion -- the company has beaten earnings per share estimates in four consecutive quarters. My firm, Belus Capital Advisors, currently rates Starbucks shares a buy with an $85 price target.

Monday, July 21, 2014

Who Will Follow Kodiak Oil & Gas to Be the Next Bakken Buyout?

Despite the fact that Kodiak Oil & Gas (NYSE: KOG  ) has decided to be acquired by Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL  ) for slightly less than market value for similar deals recently, Wall Street seems to love the transaction. Both Kodiak and Whiting have seen shares climb by 10.1% and 10.4%, respectively, following the announcement, which suggests there might have been something bigger to the deal. Let's take a look at what has changed recently for Kodiak and how that could impact other smaller players in the Bakken such as Oasis Petroleum (NYSE: OAS  ) and Triangle Petroleum (NYSEMKT: TPLM  ) .

Source: Chesapeake Energy Media Relations.

Exposing Kodiak's flaw
The first thing that stands out to investors for Kodiak Oil & Gas is its incredible growth story over the past few years. Since the first quarter of 2012 to today, the company has seen production and revenue grow by 7.41 and 7.5 times, respectively. This makes it one of the fastest growing oil producers in the country:

Company Production Growth 2011-2013
Kodiak Oil & Gas 741%
Whiting Petroleum 138%
Oasis Petroleum  317%

Not only that, but the company has a prime acreage position in the Bakken formation, which is becoming a more prolific oil reserve by the day. Thanks to better drilling technology and more experience in drilling tight oil wells, the total recoverable amount of oil in the region has more than doubled to 7.38 billion barrels of oil since the U.S. Geological Survey's first assessment of the shale play, and top companies in the region even consider that to be a conservative estimate. This means that the 2,100 or so potential drilling locations Kodiak has on its books may only be scratching the surface of this company.

This huge surge in production and Kodiak's push to tap that potential has come at a cost -- its financial health. Along with that revenue growth, its total debt has tripled to $2.25 billion because the company's capital expenditures have been outpacing its cash flow. The theory is that its increased production and revenue would catch up to its debt load, and it would start to generate free cash flow.

In most cases, this theory was starting to work, but one recent change for producers in the Bakken region has changed that dynamic, and that is North Dakota Industrial Commission's decision to limit natural gas flaring at wells. According to the commission, any well that cannot reduce flaring at the well by 74% by October will not be allowed to produce more than 200 barrels per day at each well. Not only will this involve preparing new wells to capture gas, but companies will also need to go back to previous wells. Kodiak doesn't really have the financial flexibility to go back and make those installations at previous wells, nor could it risk having its wells' production be so constrained. By combining forces with Whiting, the combined company will have a bit more financial flexibility to make the necessary fixes at its new and existing wells.

Who's next?
Kodiak Oil & Gas isn't the only one that has employed this growth strategy in the Bakken, and several other companies that are either Bakken-centric or have smaller assets in the region will also struggle with these new regulations. The companies that immediately come to mind are Oasis Petroleum and Triangle Petroleum because they are pure plays, but two other companies that could be at risk here are Halcon Resources (NYSE: HK  ) and Magnum Hunter Resources (NYSE: MHR  ) . While Magnum Hunter and Halcon do have assets elsewhere, they have both been using the Bakken as a production base to generate revenue while they explore less established shale formations. Based on the cash flow at these companies, they can ill afford to see production limited in the Bakken.

Company % Production From Bakken (on Boe basis) Total Wells in Bakken (net) % of Capital Expenditures Covered by Operational Cash Flow (LTM)
Oasis Petroleum 100% 406.2 29.2%

Triangle Petroleum

100% 39.6 19.5%
Magnum Hunter Resouces 31% 98 7.2%
Halcon Resources 71% 188 23.8%

Source: Company 10-ks and S&P capital IQ, authors calculations.

Magnum Hunter has already been in the process of linking its current and upcoming wells to a natural gas gathering system to reduce flaring, so it may be in a better position than the others on this list in that regard. However, if these companies are already struggling to finance operations before these flaring regulations start to take hold, then don't be surprised if they follow a similar path to Kodiak Oil & Gas and sell either its Bakken operations or sell out entirely.

What a Fool believes
The next several months will be very interesting regarding the future of the Bakken. These new regulations will put immense pressure on companies that have not been dealing with natural gas, especially the smaller ones that are already financially stressed. When you add this little wrinkle to the mix, it's a little easier to understand why Kodiak has decided to be acquired by a bigger fish in the Bakken pond for a less than premium price. Investors with a stake in the region should really keep an ear to the ground, because it's very likely that we will see another similar deal soon.

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Friday, July 18, 2014

Consumer Sentiment Slips as Growth, Jobs Fall Short

Man gets money from the wallet Shutterstock U.S. consumer sentiment slipped in early July while an index of consumer expectations weakened for a third straight month, a survey released Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary July reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 81.3, below both the consensus analyst expectation of 83 and the final June read of 82.5. "The most remarkable aspect of recent trends in consumer confidence has been its resistance to change in either direction due to very negative GDP nor very positive employment gains," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement. "This stability will provide the necessary strength for consumer spending to continue to expand, but does not support an acceleration in spending above 2.5 percent." The survey's barometer of current economic conditions rose to 97.1 from 96.6, compared with a forecast of 97.0. The survey's gauge of consumer expectations slipped for a third straight month, to 71.1 from 73.5. The subindex was below an expected 74.0. The survey's one-year inflation expectation rose to 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent in June, while the survey's five-to-10-year inflation outlook fell to 2.6 percent from 2.9 percent. Curtin said long-term inflation expectations had only been lower once in the past 25 years, in 2009, when expectations were for 2.5 percent. "Indeed, 2.6 percent was only recorded twice before at the depth of the Great Recession," he said. "While at the bottom of the range it has traveled in the past decade, it gave no indication of a trend toward deflation." Most of us spend a ton of time researching our options when we first sign up for a plan or policy, then forget all about it and make monthly payments like a robot. But this can cost you.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Starbucks now selling Colombia its own coffee

starbucks ceo schultz Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz is opening the company's first store in Colombia, the country that's been supplying much of its coffee since 1971. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Starbucks opened its first store in Colombia on Wednesday, which means that after 43 years, the company will finally sell 100% locally-produced coffee.

"We're only serving Colombia coffee in the store; we've never done anything like that before," said Starbucks Chief Executive Officer Howard Schultz, speaking by phone from Bogota with CNN's Poppy Harlow.

Over the next five years, Starbucks plans to open 50 stores and hire 1,000 workers in Colombia.

Seattle-based Starbucks (SBUX) has been buying coffee from Colombia since its debut in 1971. The company has more than 20,000 stores in 65 countries.

But it will be hard for the chain to beak into this market, which is dominated by national coffee producer Juan Valdez Café.

"It's a difficult market to crack because of the entrenched issue of Juan Valdez and we wanted to come here the right way," said Schultz. "I think we need to come here with humility and respect. The success we've had around the world does not mean we are going to be successful here."

Regarding their main competitor, he said, "I think we'll coexist with Juan Valdez. Our intent is not to overtake them, but again to create a distinct experience and I think we'll do that."

Schultz also explained that Starbucks recently raised its prices due to rising labor costs and price hikes at competitors.

"We held the line as long as we could," he said.

Schultz also expressed concern that global warming could affect his business -- and all businesses -- going forward.

"Make no mistake: Over the long term if there are not significant changes in the way global business addresses these issues -- every business, coffee or otherwise, is going to be affected," he said.

Schultz also discussed the issue of immigration reform, saying the process has unraveled since Rep. Eric Cantor, a Republican from Virginia, lost his bid for reelection in the primaries to Tea Party candidate David Brat.

"We need an immigration bill," he said. "Democrats and Republicans need to come together and recognize that we need to represent the country and come together to do what's right."

Starbucks is opening its Bogota store as part of a joint venture with two Latin American companies: Alsea, which runs about 520 Starbucks stores in Mexico, Argentina and Chile, an! d Colombian food company Grupo Nutresa.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

3 Big-Volume Stocks to Trade for Breakouts

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

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Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for Summer Gains

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently.

AeroVironment

AeroVironment (AVAV) designs, develops, produces, supports and operates unmanned aircraft systems, tactical missile systems, and efficient energy systems in the U.S. and internationally. This stock closed up 5.6% to $35.33 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 841,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 327,116

Volume % Change: 149%

From a technical perspective, AVAV ripped sharply higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $32.76 with strong upside volume flows. This sharp spike higher on Tuesday is quickly pushing shares of AVAV within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if AVAV manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $36.45 to $36.50 and then once it clears some past resistance levels at $36.97 to $37.90 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AVAV as long as it's trending above Monday's intraday low of $33.43 or above its 50-day at $32.76 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 327,116 shares. If that breakout gets underway soon, then AVAV will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at it 52-week high of $41.67.

Pacific Ethanol

Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) produces and markets low-carbon renewable fuels in the U.S. This stock closed up 8.2% to $16.98 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 2.51 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.21 million

Volume % Change: 144%

From a technical perspective, PEIX ripped sharply to the upside here and broke out above some key overhead resistance levels at $16.08 to $16.29 with high volume. This big move to the upside on Monday is now starting to push shares of PEIX within range of triggering another big breakout trade. That trade will hit if PEIX manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $17.35 to its 52-week high at $18.65 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PEIX as long as it' trending above Monday's intraday low of $15.85 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 1.21 million shares. If that breakout materializes soon, then PEIX will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $20 to $25.

Imperial Oil

Imperial (IMO) is engaged in the exploration for and the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. This stock closed up 0.97% at $53.21 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 629,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 182,885

Volume % Change: 206%

From a technical perspective, IMO rose modestly higher here right around some near-term support at $52.84 to $52 with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last six months, with shares moving higher from its low of $39.98 to its recent high of $54.09. During that uptrend, shares of IMO have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. This move higher on Monday is starting to push shares of IMO within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if IMO manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $53.50 to its 52-week high at $54.09 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in IMO as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $51.61 or at its 50-day at $50.70 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 182,885 shares. If that breakout kicks off soon, then IMO will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $60 to $65.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>3 Huge Stocks on Traders' Radars



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>>3 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves Higher

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Saturday, July 12, 2014

Australia’s Surprisingly Upbeat Businesses

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Although a difficult job market and a contentious federal budget have sapped consumer confidence in recent months, Australia's business sentiment surprised economists by actually improving in June, for the third consecutive monthly rise.

National Australia Bank's closely watched monthly business survey shows that business confidence suffered no ill effects from the Abbott government's "tough budget." Instead, confidence improved in line with better business conditions, which reversed a downward trend by reaching their highest level since January.

To be sure, the business environment still faces considerable challenges, including a decline in mining investment and a stubbornly high Australian dollar, but historically low interest rates and the rate-sensitive sectors, such as housing, that benefit from them are helping support the broader economy. Service-oriented sectors also reported strong improvement in operating conditions.

Meanwhile, both sales and profitability rebounded for businesses, even as employment numbers slipped, with higher sales helping to spur restocking.

In fact, the NAB's survey indicates that business conditions improved across all industries, with the largest positive changes in construction and mining (yes, mining–though the industry is still under substantial pressure as investment wanes).

The NAB did note that bellwether industries such as wholesale and transportation reported the lowest confidence levels among their peers, which suggests that the current positive trend may not be sustainable. Wholesale trade, in particular, posted the lowest number for business conditions among all industries.

As the NAB observes, weakness in wholesaling has persisted for more than three years. And given the sector's strong correlation with overall economic performance, subdued conditions in this area portend continuing weakness in the broader economy as wel! l. As such, we'll be monitoring other indicators from this sector more closely in the future.

Even with the aforementioned restocking, the NAB's forward orders index remained unchanged from the prior month, which suggests soft sales activity in the months ahead.

Not surprisingly, construction reported the strongest orders in June by a wide margin. Despite fears of a bubble, the country's housing boom means the real estate sector continues to be the most obvious economic driver among the non-mining industries.

Interestingly, although capacity utilization fell in June, to 79.3 percent, its lowest level since January, businesses still decided to invest in future growth. The latest result for NAB's capital expenditure index is now above its long-term average, in part because of a rise in non-mining investment.

Even though we're pleased by the unexpectedly strong showing in business sentiment, current levels are still well below the euphoria that prevailed around the time of the country's federal elections last September. That's to be expected, of course, as actual governance rarely lives up to electoral promise, as evidenced by the fallout over the federal budget.

And given the weakness in key sectors, such as wholesaling, it does seem that business sentiment's recent upward trend could soon stall.

One area to watch is the country's exchange rate, which is still well above the level at which the Reserve Bank of Australia believes is necessary to boost the economy. The Australian dollar currently trades just below USD0.94, up 8.2 percent from the late-January low.

Though at present levels, the aussie is down 14.6 percent from its cycle high in mid-2011, it would still need to fall another 10 percent or more to truly boost the economy.

Still, we'll note that even with all these challenges, the consensus among economists is that Australia's gross domestic product should grow by 3.1 percent this year, which is well ahead of the comparatively ! tepid 1.7! percent forecast for the US.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Lorillard is Smoking up Higher

Tobacco companies have always offered high dividends, and have been associated with strong balance sheets. Lorillard (LO), despite hailing from an unhealthy industry, is poised to continue raising its safely maintained dividends. The company will find plenty of tobacco huffers in the developing world, if it can build out its international presence. Below is some insight into the company.

Lorillard's flagship brands include Newport, Kent, True, Maverick, Old Gold, Blu electronic cigarettes (e- cigs) and the recently acquired British e-cig brand SKYCIG. Lorillard's flagship cigarette Newport is by far the most popular brand of mentholated cigarettes. Lorillard produces cigarettes for both the premium and discount segments of the domestic cigarette market. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, increase in stock price during the past year and expanding profit margins.

Good Numbers

Lorillard's performance has been boosted by strength across the tobacco sector. Yield-starved investors look to tobacco stocks for their hefty dividend yields to generate income for their portfolios.

Net operating cash flow has remained constant at $703.00 million with no significant change when compared to the same quarter last year. Along with maintaining stable cash flow from operations, the firm exceeded the industry average cash flow growth rate of -31.67%.

In the first quarter, Lorillard's earnings grew 4.5% year-over-year to $0.69 per share on the back of strong revenue in the traditional cigarettes segment and the impact of share buybacks. During the quarter, the company repurchased 3.2 million shares at a cost of $158 million. Traditional cigarettes' net sales increased 1.4% to $1.541 billion as higher prices offset lower sales volume. Adjusted gross profit rose 4.2%, which in turn increased adjusted operating income by 4.9%.

May Be a Merger on the Cards

There have been rumors that Reynolds American (RAI) has been exploring possibilities to take over Lorillard for several months. In Mar 2014, Reynolds reportedly started to explore options to acquire its rival Lorillard. Rather than an outright buyout of Lorillard, the deal would most likely be a merger and involve an equity offer from Reynolds.

Lorillard and Reynolds currently have market caps of about $23 billion and $33 billion, respectively, and this deal coming together would keep the M&A boom in tact. It is expected that the purchase price could be more than $20 billion. However, it is unclear whether Reynolds plans to bid for the whole company or only a portion of it. The tobacco companies have reportedly been in and out of talks of a possible merger due to fear of anti-trust issues.

The Future Would Be Like

As health-conscious people continue to quit smoking, most of the cigarette companies are increasing their prices to offset the volume declines. Though this strategy is paying off in the short term, it isn't a long-term solution for the declining tobacco industry. In other words, the catalyst for Lorillard's growth in the coming years will be its e-cigarettes.

Lorillard's e-cigarette brand for the U.S. market, blu, is doing a great job; its share in the country rose to 45% in the recent quarter. Moreover, the company's acquisition of SKYCIG will ensure that it makes further inroads in the UK's e-cigarette market as well. On the whole, Lorillard's long-term future in e-cigarettes looks quite secure.

Lorillard expects its blu category in the U.S. to keep operating at a break-even level in the short-term. The reason is its decision to lower prices on rechargeable kits to attract more customers. As the company is rebranding its product from SKYCIG to blu in the UK, it expects to incur more marketing and launch costs this year. The net operating impact of these investments over the next six to nine months could be around $10 million to $20 million. In short, the company won't be making any substantial profit from the e-cigarettes category in the next few quarters.

To End

Lorillard's market-leading position in electronic cigarettes is a potential source of growth and increased profitability. Being the market leader in menthol cigarettes has helped Lorillard avoid the decline in sales volume that the rest of the domestic cigarette market is experiencing.

It is the best positioned among its peers to benefit from consumers trading up to premium brands as disposable income rises, and an opportunity to bring the proportion of premium volume up to levels similar to what it has in developed markets can be seen. Considering the company's pricing power and exposure to growing emerging markets, Lorillard has bright prospects. Therefore, for investors in search of opportunities with current and future growth potential, it provides a great investment.

Tobacco companies pay generous dividends to shareholders because they rarely have investment opportunities to grow in the industry. As long as Lorillard's top line continues to grow and cash flow remains strong, it will provide impressive shareholder rewards. The company certainly carries regulatory and market risk, but has managed to grow its business over time and is enjoying high margins. Lorillard is well positioned for the long term and should produce strong returns for shareholders.

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Monday, July 7, 2014

U.S. ETFs Added $73.5 Billion in First Half of 2014

Investors allocated $73.5 billion to U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds in the first half, according to a report by ETF.com.

Approximately two-thirds of that amount poured into equities, amid optimism about U.S. economic recovery.

The report said total ETF assets listed in the U.S. at the end of June stood at $1.9 trillion, nearly 7% higher than at the end of 2013 and 26% higher than the year-earlier period.

The asset growth reflected a nearly 6% increase in the S&P 500 index.

The report noted that this year’s asset gathering has so far lagged the pace needed to match the one-year inflow record of $189 billion set last year.

Still, that was not out of the question, as inflows appeared to be accelerating. In June, they topped $25 billion, according to the report.

ETF.com’s data showed that the top gainers in the first half were the following:

 

1. Vanguard: Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (VEA)—$3.9 billion

2. Vanguard: Vanguard REIT (VNQ)—$3.4 billion

3. State Street Global Advisors: Energy Select SPDR (XLE)—$3.3 billion

4. Vanguard: Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO)—$3.3 billion

5. Vanguard: Vanguard FTSE Europe (VGK)—$3.2 billion

6. Vanguard: Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI)—$2.9 billion

7. BlackRock: iShares MSCI EMU (EZU)—$2.7 billion

8. BlackRock: iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF)—$2.5 billion

9. Vanguard: Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND)—$2.3 billion

10. BlackRock: iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA)—$2 billion

 

ETF.com said Vanguard attracted more than any other ETF sponsor in the first half, almost $31 billion.

The report said the firm’s low-cost pure-beta funds, which typically employ capitalization-weighted indexes, were still attracting serious attention, even as smart-beta index funds designed to beat cap-weighted indexes gained a bigger following in the world of ETFs.

Smart-beta funds’ ascendancy notwithstanding, debate exists on whether there’s a better beta.

The report also noted that with $384 billion in assets under management, Vanguard was within striking distance of catching and surpassing the No. 2 ETF firm, State Street Global Advisors, which has $403 billion.

BlackRock remains top dog, with $718 billion in assets.

Following are the ETFs with the biggest first-half outflows, according to ETF.com data:

 

1. State Street Global Advisors: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)—$14.7 billion

2. Invesco PowerShares: PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)—$4.2 billion

3. State Street Global Advisors: Consumer Discretionary Select SPDR (XLY)—$2.3 billion

4. Vanguard: Vanguard FTSE (VWO)—$2.3 billion

5. BlackRock: iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)—$2.3 billion

6. Van Eck: Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO)—$2.2 billion

7. WisdomTree: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)—$1.7 billion

8. BlackRock: iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG)—$1.6 billion

9. BlackRock: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)—$1.5 billion

10. State Street Global Advisors: Technology Select SPDR (XLK)—$1.4 billion

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Sri Lanka Plans Its Own Mini Vegas

In the heart of Colombo, next to a lake, John Keells Holdings, Sri Lanka's largest listed conglomerate, has giant excavators preparing the foundation for its new resort, the biggest in the country.

The $820 million project–the largest investment by a domestic company here–includes an 800-room luxury hotel, conference venues, a shopping mall, residential apartments, an office complex and the special attraction for Asia's offshore tourist trade: a casino.

Since the end in 2009 of a 26-year civil war that gripped much of the attention on Sri Lanka, foreigners are rediscovering the island nation's swaying palm trees, stunning views of the Indian Ocean and spicy food.

Tourist arrivals grew more than 20% a year from 2009 to 2012, versus 5% from 2004 to 2008, says Acuity Stockbrokers in Colombo. Last year was another banner increase–tourist arrivals hit 1.3 million in the year ending in March, with Chinese visits especially picking up. India remains the largest source.

John Keells is targeting the newly affluent in those two countries. (As it happens, when the UN Human Rights Council in March opted to investigate allegations of war crimes in Sri Lanka–a particular vexation for the government that triumphed over Tamil separatists–China voted against the resolution while India abstained.) But an aspect of the plan, as with many things in these parts, stirs political division.

Protesters think casinos aren't a winning bet

Sri Lanka's largest company, John Keells was set up by two Englishmen in the 1870s as a brokerage. Today it also makes food and beverages, runs supermarkets and hotels, and has investments in banks and ports. In a business sector typified by family-controlled entities, it is held 56% by foreign institutional investors.

"Soon after the war ended we decided that Sri Lanka was the place to be," said Susantha Ratnayake, 55, the group chairman, in an interview at the company headquarters attached to the sprawling Cinnamon Lakeside Hotel, one of its two five-stars in the capital. On another side of this lake–which still goes by its Dutch name, Beira–is where Keells' resort is under construction.

Group revenues have doubled since 2009 to $675 million in 2013, while net profits similarly rose to $107 million in the same period. The company has made appearances on FORBES ASIA's Best Under A Billion honor roll.

Noting that more Indians were traveling to places like Singapore, Malaysia and Macau, where they were the source of "considerable" gross gaming revenue, Keells executives decided that postwar a new regional tourism strategy was in order.

"Why shouldn't we get some of that traffic and those dollars," says Ratnayake. "We thought about what has kept the Indians back so far. [The answer was that] you need high-end shopping and entertainment. We also knew that if we enter any new business, it has to have scale."

Result? The so-called integrated resort that is due to open by 2018.

"To quote [American mogul and chairman of Las Vegas Sands] Sheldon Adelson, just build it [a casino] and people will come," says Ratnayake.

Sri Lankan officials want to double the foreign tourist count to 2.5 million by 2016. To attract development, they're offering ten-year tax breaks on income generated from visitors apart from gambling. Meantime, they've designated a street along Lake Beira for new casinos–like a mini Las Vegas.

John Keells will get competition from Dhammika Perera, one of the richest men in the country, and Australian billionaire James Packer, both of whom also have gambling resorts in the works in the government-designated strip. (The Keells layout, which sits on land it has owned for several years, is nearly a mile away but received special permission.)

Perera's project, the Queensbury Integrated Resort & Casino, includes a 500-room hotel, a mini convention center and its own shopping mall. Packer's entry, in tandem with Sri Lankan promoter Ravi Wijeratne, is priced at $400 million and is said to be emphasizing celebrity chefs. (The Aussie also has casinos in Macau, London and Perth.)

Friday, July 4, 2014

Could Fannie and Freddie Be High-Growth Investments Again?

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The last three years have seen a complete turnaround in the fortunes of Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), the government-sponsored enterprises.

Following Fannie's "Great Depression" dive to around 20 cents from $90 leading into and following the largest housing correction in recent memory, the federal housing lender has, like many other severely depressed stocks, become a new investment play for small-caps and over-the-counter traders.

From that 20-cent low point, Fannie -- more formally the Federal National Mortgage Association -- recovered to $5.33 in March of last year, a relatively modest price given Fannie Mae's prior levels. Its shares closed Thursday at $4, up over 33% for the year to date.

>>FIFA World Cup Still a Huge Draw Without U.S. Team Will the stock go even higher now that the housing market is showing signs of a rebound? Carl Icahn certainly seems to think so after recent filing reports indicating an almost $50 million investment in Fannie and Freddie shares. With an investor of this caliber making waves and seemingly viewing the shares as potentially cheap it could add fuel to an already burning fire. Icahn certainly has the ability to make fellow investors and companies listen because he's well known for shaking up management. Icahn's purchases of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock were made at $4.03 and $4.04, respectively. Freddie Mac -- otherwise known as the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. -- closed Thursday at $3.92, up over 35% for the year to date. I think both of these GSEs could go the way of Las Vegas Sands (LVS), whose shares moved to $56 from from $1.38 after the stock was oversold during the real estate crash. LVS closed at $77.94 Thursday. I don't think anyone will bypass this stock again. At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned. This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Playing To The Strengths Of Biotech

The biotech sector is not the gamble it was in recent years. The industry is quickly becoming a perfect investment storm of improved drug development technology and clinical testing, more efficient FDA approvals, and better funding in venture capital. When looking to minimize risk while maintaining potential for long term gains, it is important to approach the sector with a diversified strategy that focuses on names that are well-established in the business. This goes far in helping investors avoid the "hit and miss" trading volatility that is typically associated with positions taken in biotech stocks.

Avoid the One-Hit Wonders

The usual risks involved when investing in the biotech industry are seen when media hype or success with a single product or patent distracts the attention from the companies that are best established in the business. Companies with long-developed industry networks do not carry the same risks as companies without established connective pipelines to other players in the sector. One example of a company with a wide variety of established pharmaceutical products already available on the market is Celgene (CELG). Celgene's main focus has been Abraxane, a cancer drug to treat metastatic breast cancer.

Abraxane received approval in 2005, but has garnered more attention recently with encouraging test results and new indications. One of the additional indications came last October and shows potential uses for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. Later in the year, Celgene announce that a combined treatment of Abraxane and Gemzar (which is produced by Eli Lilly) increases the survival rates for pancreatic cancer patients. From a profit standpoint, Celgene's long-term expectations are for revenues to double (and for total profits to triple) in the next five years. In support of these expectations, we are seeing the approval of multiple myeloma drug Pomalyst, and the likely approval of psoriasis drug Apremilast in addition to the variety of new indications for Abraxane. The combination of these factors presents some strong opportunities for investors looking for new exposure in biotech.

Look for Varied Drug Innovations

While it is important to seek out well-established companies with a proven product line, it should be remembered that it is still possible to find long-term opportunities in companies that are still in the clinical stage. In these cases, risk can be reduced by identifying those companies with a diversified set of drug innovations. So, when smaller companies are limited in the types of diseases and treatments, there is generally less protection from investment risk. One example of a smaller company with strong product positioning is ImmunoGen (IMGN).

ImmunoGen's central focus is on targeted antibody payload technology (TAP), which is a chemotherapy treatment for reduced capacity cancer cells. Earlier this year, the HER2-positive breast cancer drug Kadcyla received approval from the FDA. Most encouraging about the progress is the fact that this creates additional possibilities for the combination therapies using the TAP technology. ImmunoGen has reached for late-stage trials for one of its compounds, mid-stage trials for eight of its compounds, and has nine compounds in early-stage trials. This essentially means that ImmunoGen has 18 separate opportunities to use its TAP technology with compounds developed by its pharmaceutical and biotech partnerships. This product diversification presents some interesting (and risk-protected) opportunities for long-term investors.

Diversification in Stock Selection

Investing in biotech can seem intimidating, given the complex nature of the industry. So, for those looking for a simple way to gain exposure to the industry, a basket sector ETF might be the best choice. The clearest option here is the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), which has nominal gross expense ratio of 0.35% and an average return of nearly 10% since it was started in 2006. The fund's holdings include Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), which has made well-documented progress in Eteplirsen, its Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug. Most analysts expect Eteplirsen to receive relatively quick FDA approval, helping support the underlying value of the stock. Other holdings include NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP), which recently bought back the right to Gattex, a short bowel syndrome drug.

Another selection to consider is the Market Vectors Biotech ETF (BBH). The fund has seen returns of a massive 55% since its inception and has a net expense ratio of 0.35%. This fund is centered on fewer stock selections (in contrast to the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF), so there is an enhanced potential for price volatility. Fund holdings include Gilead (GILD), Celgene and Amgen (AMGN), which make up more than 2/3 of the fund. This essentially means investors will sacrifice some of the diversification that can be found in choices like the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF, but many of the individual selections are well-positioned for gains for the remainder of the year.

So, while biotech investments might seem overly complicated and unnecessarily risky, it should be remembered that there are some steps that can be taken to separate the wheat from the chaff and reduce risks in biotech investments. Additionally, there is a variety of vehicles that can be used to gain exposure to the industry. For those less confident, ETFs should be considered as a means for obtaining well-diversified exposure and to capitalize on the long-term prospects in biotech.

About the author:RichardCoxRichard Cox is a university teacher in international trade and finance. Lecture halls of 80 to 120 students. Lessons in macroeconomics and price behavior in equity markets. Investing strategies in these articles are based on technical and fundamental analysis of all the major asset classes (stocks, commodities, currencies). Trade ideas are generally based on time horizons of one to six months. Follow me on Twitter: @Richard_A_Cox

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Wednesday, July 2, 2014

TDFs Gobbling New Fund Assets: Morningstar

Nearly a third of net new assets in firms with target-date funds in 2013 came from TDF inflows, according to Morningstar's 2014 target-date series research paper released on Tuesday.

For T. Rowe Price, it’s even more. More than 90% of the firm’s total $8.5 billion in net new mutual fund assets in 2013 were gained from its target-date series’ $8.1 billion in net new assets (excluding money market flows). Roughly half of Fidelity’s new assets came from TDFs.

Even for firms with smaller target-date series, like J.P. Morgan and American Funds, TDFs made up a significant portion of their parent firms’ sources of new assets.

“J.P. Morgan’s $7.4 billion in new target-date assets, for instance, represented more than a third of the firm’s net new assets in 2013," the study said. "American Funds’ $2.3 billion in net new target-date assets helped soften the impact from the firm’s overall $13.0 billion in outflows that year.”

The target-date market overall saw a rise in net flows, with a 10.5% organic growth rate in 2013. The study reported 20 of 36 target-date mutual fund firms with growth rates greater than the overall industry’s. According to the annual study, target-date mutual funds held more than $650 billion in assets as of March 31, thanks to the more than $50 billion in new flows in 2013 and combined with an additional $18 billion in new assets in 2014’s first quarter plus market appreciation.

“Those figures underscore not only how ubiquitous target-date funds have become to individuals saving for retirement, but also their central role to many fund companies' business prospects,” wrote Janet Yang, Morningstar’s target-date series strategist and lead author of the study, in her report summary. “With echo boomers — a group often anecdotally noted for embracing the set-it-and-forget-it nature of target-date funds — beginning to enter their peak earning period, investors and industry watchers should expect those numbers to continue growing in the years to come.”

While the trend of lower fees continues again this year for the fifth year in a row, the award for lowest-cost target-date series in the industry has changed hands. This year Fidelity Freedom Index series was crowned the lowest-cost target date series, unseating Vanguard's Target Retirement series. At the end of 2013, the Vanguard series had an asset-weighted fee of 0.17%, compared with 0.16% for Fidelity Freedom Index.

According to Morningstar’s annual survey, the industry’s average asset-weighted fee has come down, from 1.04% in 2008 to 0.84% at the end of 2013.

“Part of that movement comes from a longer-term trend favoring lower-priced index-based investments within target-date funds,” Yang wrote.

  Other Key Findings:

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