IRFC raises Rs 5,350 cr through tax-free bond issue

As against an offer of one crore tax-free bonds (in the nature of secured redeemable non-convertible debentures), it received bids for 5.38 crore bonds. While 2.82 crore bids came in for series 1 (carries 7.38 per cent interest with 10-year tenor), another 2.56 crore bids for series 2 (7.43 per cent interest with 15-year tenor).

The bonds are proposed to be listed on the BSE and the NSE

With this, the company has mobilised close to Rs 6,500 crore this fiscal, as it had already raised Rs 1,100 crore through a private placement.

In the last two days of the issue, it raised about Rs 2,500 crore. IRFC had also raised Rs 1,650 crore through external commercial borrowings for a five-year tenure, at 3.417 per cent.

Falling short

IRFC has a budgeted target of raising Rs 15,000 crore fund in current fiscal.

It will have to mobilise about Rs 6,800 crore, unless the Indian Railways lowers the borrowing target for the firm. Of this, IRFC still has a tax-free window of about Rs 3,500 crore, for which it can enter the market again. "We will use options like term loans and external commercial borrowing window to raise the requisite amount. That will not be difficult," said Rajiv Datt, Managing Director.

IRFC funds are primarily used to buy rolling stock, such as locomotives, wagons and coaches.

Till date, it has acquired 6,073 locomotives, 36,613 passenger coaches and 162,238 freight wagons for the Railways, which are valued at Rs 82,447 crore.

This ensures that the loans are securitised against rolling stock, allowing IRFC to raise funds at a lower cost.

In fiscal 2011-12, the company funded the acquisition of 506 locomotives, 2,757 passenger coaches and 13,208 freight wagons, valued at Rs 12,604 crore. This was the highest ever funding of rolling stock by IRFC.

New Project Unveiled By Oracle Will Enhance Decision Making

In the prepackaged software sector, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is king. During the fiscal year ending in May 2013, this company reported sales of $37.8 billion, giving it a small increase of just 0.2%. However, there is much ado about everything with Oracle, as its sales have only increased each of the previous five years, with sales increasing a total of 55% since 2008. This year, company sales are up 4.4%. And an announcement made by the company today may only see those sales skyrocket.

Featured Winner for Computer, Software Services

Oracle's week began with its naming as a featured winner in the software services and computer sector by The Street. This is because the company was able to push the industry higher. As a whole, the computer and software services industry closed out the beginning of the week up at 0.2%. End of trading saw Oracle Corporation rising $0.57, or 1.8%, to $32.34 on light volume.

Buy Recommendation Reiterated

The following day, August 27th, saw Oracle's buy recommendation being reiterated by The Street. A ratings report highlighted the facts behind this recommendation. In the most recent quarter, Oracle has only improved its earnings per share, and by 15.9% when it was compared to the same quarter in 2012. At this time, analysts expect that this trend in earnings share will continue as the company increased its bottom line in the past fiscal year. A slight improvement in a return on equity was also noted when compared with this quarter last year.

Impressive is the fact that, when compared with other companies in its market, Oracle's return on equity actually exceeds the industry average. It also exceeds the return on equity of the S&P 500.

Stock Profile Summary

At least one analyst has pointed to the fact that Oracle has much strength as a company. Not only has Oracle grown its earnings per share, but it also boasts impressive revenue growth. This company is expanding its profit margins and retaining its attractive valuati! on levels. In addition to this, its return on equity is notable.

While analysts do point to the fact that the company does harbor minor weaknesses - one of which is the underperformance of the company despite its revenue growth - they do not expect these weaknesses to impact results significantly.

For the period between Monday, July 29th, and Wednesday, August 28th, of this year, Oracle's statistical range is 1.8, with 1.42 being the coefficient variation. The last thirty days saw a median price for this stock being 32.57, and stockholders received dividends from the company on July 10, 2013.

As of August 28, 2013, Oracle stock closed at $31.81, putting it at an increase of 0.03, or 0.09%. Its range for today was between 31.70 and 31.91, with an average daily volume of 27,403,400.

PeopleSoft In-Memory Project Discovery

Oracle announced that its new solution, the People-Soft In-Memory Project Discovery, would help its customers turn mountains of unstructured data into information that can be deciphered, analyzed and processed.

The solution is intended to aid project performance as well as elevate revenues by improving the decision-making process. The solution is being offered via Oracle's human capital management applications unit, and translates unstructured data into structured data, making it easy to see how much of an aid it could be to those businesses needing to solve their challenges in unstructured data review.

The PeopleSoft solution will enable users to use Oracle's PeopleSoft Services Automation suite to analyze structured data, keywords and unstructured data. This can be accomplished by searching and filtering on any keywords that relate to resources and projects. Filters can be refined, and results can be displayed graphically in any PeopleSoft applications that are for the management of resources or projects.

The solution will run on two Oracle platforms: the Endeca Information Discovery and the Exalytics in-memory machine.

Oracle Hostin! g HCM At ! OpenWorld 2013

Oracle also announced that it would be hosting HCM at Oracle OpenWorld, being held in San Francisco this year. The company is doing this in order to assist HR professionals with maximizing their technology investments into HCM and improve their industry strength.

HCM @ OpenWorld promises to reveal how they can keep employees engaged for better and smarter performance, in addition to streamlining their operations and aligning employees for the achievement of common goals.

The event will bring customers, partners and prospects of the company together in one location to explore the innovations in HCM technology.

Source: New Project Unveiled By Oracle Will Enhance Decision Making

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Illuminate Your Portfolio With LEDs

Let's face facts- we're energy hogs. Energy usage continues to rise at a rapid pace as people across the world live more modern and connected lives. And while new sources of supply- from shale gas to solar power- have taken some of the pressures off of that high demand, the truth is we're still using electricity at an alarming rate.

To that end, a variety of governments have been seeking solutions to the potential energy crisis and energy efficiency measures have become the topic du jour. A consumer's look to do more with less, one of the biggest opportunities could lie within in commercial and residential lighting space. New technologies are the main culprit of energy use across the world, but they are also helping to reduce the amount of energy needed to light-up our planet.

For investors, focusing on this need for energy efficiency could provide great long-term gains for a portfolio.

A Bright Future
Lighting our homes and business may hold the greatest potential for energy savings.

Currently, lighting accounts for approximately 20% of U.S. electricity consumption. Lighting our residences account for up to 20% of total electricity use, while in commercial buildings it accounts for nearly 36%. Much that energy demand comes from variations of incandescent and gas-discharge lamps. These bulbs produce light via a filament that glows when electricity heats it. They're downright inefficient, with roughly 90% of the energy they consume given off as heat, rather than light.

However, times are changing.

Semiconductors called light emitting diodes or LED's are driving that change, and saving energy. Although created in the 1960s, new technologies in LEDs are moving the semiconductor from the TV remote to high-efficiency bulbs. To produce the same amount of light as 40 to 100 watt incandescent bulb, a comparable LED will only consume 3 to 13 watts of power, a significant savings. Not to mention, they produce little to no heat and have an average lifespan of 50,000 hours. The average traditional incandescent bulb only lasts about 1500 hours.

The potential energy savings, bulb longevity as well as the shrinking costs for the LEDs themselves are helping set up a huge surge in adoption by government, commercial and residential consumers. Analysts at Navigant Research forecast that revenue from LED lamp sales will rise to $8.7 billion by 2021. That's a growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% from today's numbers. Industrial icon General Electric (NYSE:GE) -whose founder invented the first light bulb- predicts that LEDs will make up between 70 and 80% of the general lighting market in that time frame.

SEE: Emerging Markets' Environmental Commitment

Shining A Light
Given the potential for LEDs and other solid state lamps (SSL) to dominate the lighting market over the next few decades, investors with longer termed timelines may want to consider the sector for a portfolio. The bulk of the market for LED bulbs is produced by a handful of manufacturers. Conglomerates like GE, Phillips (NYSE:PHG), Toshiba (OTCBB:TOSBF) and Panasonic (NYSE:PC) control more than half of LED sales. These large firms have many moving pieces and lighting is just one facet. However, investors do have a few –albeit more volatile- options with regards to pure players.

The best could be industry standard-bearer CREE (NASDAQ:CREE). The company continues to be one of the top innovators across both the commercial and residential space and recently introduced a flood light that looks and lights like a traditional incandescent BR30 but uses 85% less energy. CREE continues drive costs lower as well. This new bulb is only $19.99. CREE shares aren't the cheapest- at a forward P/E of 36- but its premium may be deserved as the industry leader. Diversified chip-maker Rambus (NASDAQ:RMBS) also makes an interesting LED choice.

Just as with the regular semiconductor market, there are plenty of companies who manufacture the chips themselves, but only a handful that make the equipment to do so. Both Veeco Instruments (NASDAQ:VECO), and Aixtron (NASDAQ:AIXG) produce the equipment needed to make LED chips, while GT Advanced Technologies (NASDAQ:GTAT) also produces solar panel equipment along with various LED applications. The three firms should see long term growth in their LED portfolios as adoption of the technology and potential shortages will cause the need for more production equipment.

The Bottom Line
While new sources of supplies are helping curb the energy crisis, the truth is that we are still using more and more. That's were energy efficiency measures could come in with LED technology being a perfect example of a technology that has a real impact on the amount of energy consumed. Over the long haul, the growth and adoption of LEDs is assured.

Where Will Elan Go Next?

With shares of Elan (NYSE:ELN) trading around $15, is ELN an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Elan is a biotechnology company that is focused on discovering and developing advanced therapies in neurodegenerative and autoimmune diseases. Such diseases include Alzheimer's Disease, Parkinson's Disease, Celiac disease, Crohn's Disease, and Narcolepsy. As these diseases take a toll on many lives, any positive progress Elan can make will be very rewarding. As many of these diseases come to the attention of people around the world, biotechnology companies such as Elan will see rising demand.

Just recently, it was announced that Perrigo (NASDAQ:PRGO) will purchase the Irish pharmaceutical company, Elan, for $8.6 billion in order to take advantage of Ireland's lower tax rates. Perrigo's corporate income tax rate will drop from 30 percent to 12.5 percent by re-domiciling in Ireland. According to Perrigo, the deal will save the company $150 million a year in taxes.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Elan stock has been rising over the last several months. The stock is now trading at highs for the year, and at prices not seen since 2008. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages.

What are the key moving averages? They are the 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Elan is trading above its rising key averages, which signals neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Elan options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
Elan Options	18.18%	86%	83%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
August Options	Flat	Average
September Options	Flat	Average

As of today, there is average demand from call buyers or sellers, and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts, and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Elan’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Elan look like, and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4	2012 Q3
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	78.42%	-20.00%	-452.69%	-133.33%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	900.00%	27350%	13.37%	9.74%
Earnings Reaction	4.46%	-0.75%	-10.13%	-0.28%

Elan has seen mixed earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had mixed feelings about Elan’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Elan stock done relative to its peers, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Sanofi (NYSE:SNY), Biogen Idec (NASDAQ:BIIB), and sector?

	Elan	Pfizer	Sanofi	Biogen Idec	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	51.52%	17.87%	11.27%	48.91%	24.19%

Elan has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Elan is a biotechnology company that is looking for ways to improve and better the lives of people with disruptive diseases. The company is now set to be bought-out by Perrigo. The stock has been rising over the last several months, and is now trading at prices not seen for five years. Over the last four quarters, investors have had mixed feelings about the company, as earnings have been mixed, while revenue figures have been improving. Relative to its peers and sector, Elan has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Elan to OUTPERFORM.

Hong Kong Scraps Stock Trading as Typhoon Utor Shutters City

Hong Kong canceled stock exchange trading, shut schools and offices and warned people to stay at home as Severe Typhoon Utor swept past China's financial center.

The No. 8 storm signal, the third highest, will be lowered at 2 p.m. as Typhoon Utor moves away to China, the Hong Kong Observatory said at 11:50 a.m.

More than 270 flights were canceled or delayed as the storm brought maximum wind speeds of 142 kilometers (88 miles) an hour. The typhoon, the first this year to prompt the raising of the No. 8 signal, is centered about 250 kilometers southwest of Hong Kong and is headed toward China's Guangdong province.

"It's like a ghost town, everything's closed," Gavin Parry, managing director of Hong Kong-based brokerage Parry International Trading Ltd., said by telephone. "It's eerie in that respect, given it's such a populous place and usually it's hustle and bustle."

Streets in the city's financial district were largely empty as people heeded the warning to stay indoors. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. (HSI) said in a statement it will reschedule its interim results to Aug. 15 from today because of the storm. The average daily securities turnover for the first seven months at the exchange was HK$65.7 billion ($8.5 billion).

"Utor will make landfall near Yangjiang over the western coast of Guangdong and will move gradually away from Hong Kong this afternoon," according to the observatory. "Local winds are expected to weaken gradually this afternoon."

Chinese Waves

The China Meteorological Administration said the storm will probably make landfall in the western part of Guangdong between noon and the evening. The government also said that there will be heavy rains along the coast.

Typhoon Utor is forecast to move northwest at about 16 kilometers an hour toward the western coast of Guangdong, the observatory said.

Hong Kong, situated off China's southern coast, gets on average about six tropical cyclones annually, according to the weather bureau. Severe Typhoon Vicente, the most serious storm to hit Hong Kong since 1999, brought schools, banks and flights to a halt last year as it felled trees and damaged a coal conveyor belt.

Flights Delayed

The government shut schools, and banks are closed to the public, according to the Hong Kong Association of Banks. A total of 100 flights were canceled and 174 were delayed as of 10 a.m. local time, according to the Hong Kong Airport Authority. There were no reports of flooding or landslides, the government said in a statement.

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (293), the city's biggest carrier, told passengers to defer non-essential travel.

Companies including Dah Chong Hong Holdings Ltd. and Citic Pacific Ltd. canceled post-earnings press conferences scheduled because of the weather.

Shun Tak Holdings Ltd.'s TurboJET, which operates a ferry service to Macau from Hong Kong, suspended services. The government said 41 people have sought refuge at shelters and a 26-year-old woman was earlier admitted to hospital for treatment. The government received three reports of fallen trees.

MTR Corp., the city's subway and train operator, reduced services by lengthening intervals to 10 minutes to 20 minutes, according to a statement on its website.

"I couldn't find a taxi today and had to walk 15 minutes to work," said Yueyang Hou, a trader at Capula Investment Management. "Most of my colleagues couldn't come in on time today because they had to take alternative transport."

SEC Charges SAC Capital’s Cohen

The Securities and Exchange Commission levied civil charges Friday against hedge fund advisor Steven Cohen, founder of SAC Capital Advisors, for failing to supervise two senior employees and prevent them from insider trading under his watch.

The SEC’s Division of Enforcement says Cohen received “highly suspicious information” that should have caused any reasonable hedge fund manager to investigate the basis for trades made by two portfolio managers who reported to him — Mathew Martoma and Michael Steinberg.

Cohen “ignored the red flags and allowed Martoma and Steinberg to execute the trades” in 2008 in two pharmaceutical companies as well as Dell, the SEC says. “Instead of scrutinizing their conduct, Cohen praised Steinberg for his role in the suspicious trading and rewarded Martoma with a $9 million bonus for his work.”

Cohen’s hedge funds earned profits and avoided losses of more than $275 million as a result of the illegal trades, the SEC says.

The SEC’s Enforcement Division is seeking to bar Cohen from overseeing investor funds. His firm has already agreed to pay more than $615 million his firm has already agreed to pay for the alleged insider trading.

After learning about red flags indicating potential insider trading by his employees, Cohen allegedly failed to follow up to prevent violations of the law.

According to the SEC’s order instituting administrative proceedings against Cohen, portfolio managers Martoma and Steinberg obtained material nonpublic information about publicly traded companies in 2008, and they traded on the basis of that information.

The SEC charged Martoma, of the SAC affiliate CR Intrinsic, and the doctor who tipped him with insider trading last year, slapping the affiliate with a record fine of more than $600 million.

Steinberg, a portfolio manager at Sigma Capital Management, was charged earlier this year. Sigma Capital agreed to pay nearly $14 million to settle the charges.

The SEC says that its investigation found that in his supervisory role, Cohen oversaw trading by Martoma and Steinberg and required them to update him on their stock trading and convey the reasons for their trades. “On at least two separate occasions in 2008, they provided information to Cohen indicating their potential access to inside information to support their trading. However, Cohen stood by on both occasions instead of ascertaining whether insider trading was taking place.”

According to the SEC’s order, “Cohen watched Martoma build a massive long position in the stock of two pharmaceutical companies — Elan and Wyeth — based on their joint clinical trial of a drug with the potential to treat Alzheimer’s disease. Cohen allowed this despite repeated e-mails and instant messages to Cohen from other analysts at CR Intrinsic advocating against it.”

The analysts, the SEC says, “questioned whether Martoma possessed undisclosed data on the results of the trial. Cohen responded by saying it was ‘tough’ to know whether Martoma knew something, but that he would follow Martoma’s advice because he was ‘closer to it than you.’”

Lockheed Attains 52-Week High - Analyst Blog

On Jul 8, 2013, shares of Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) soared to a new 52-week high of $109.39 driven by sizeable contract wins from the Department of Defense as well as from its international customers. The company recorded positive earnings surprise in three of the last four quarters, resulting in an average beat of 16.6%.

Lockheed has successfully clinched a number of defense contracts in the first half of 2013, thanks to its diversified operations. The company's persistent focus on technological innovation has allowed Lockheed to attract lucrative government orders in the past as well as present.

The most notable award received by Lockheed this year is the $320 million U.S. Air Force contract for the supply of enhanced communications reliability, survivability, and information capabilities. Its strategic joint venture with Boeing Company (BA), United Launch Alliance, proved profitable with the entity clinching a lofty $1.1 billion order for the production of the new Evolved Expendable Space Launch Vehicle.

Overseas contract flows have also been promising. Lockheed secured a $308.3 million foreign military sales contract for the continued delivery of tactical missiles and modification kits to Kuwait defense forces.

Furthermore, Lockheed's cost-control efforts bore positive results with the development and production cost for F-35 fighters declining 1.1% during the first quarter. We believe these positive factors will help Lockheed to successfully counter the uncertain environment in the defense sector.

The expected long-term earnings growth rate for the company is set at 6.8% while the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2013 reflects an estimated 6.4% jump to $8.99 from $8.45 in 2012.

The present valuation makes the shares of Lockheed look attractive. The forward price/earnings ("P/E") multiple of 12.1x is lower than the peer group average of 14.5x, reflecting a discount of 16.5%. In addition, Return on Equity ("ROE") of the company is 232.7%, significa! ntly higher than the peer group average of 18.2%.

Lockheed currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Other companies in the industry worth considering are Zacks Ranked #1 (Strong Buy) Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated (EAC) and Zacks Ranked #2 (Buy) Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC).

Bethesda, MD-based Lockheed Martin presently has a market capitalization of $34.72 billion.

AdvisorShares Rolls Out International Bear ETF (HDGI)

The bull run continues on Wall Street as largely upbeat corporate earnings reports are offering little reasons to sell now. Amid the ongoing wave of optimism permeating the equity market, AdvisorShares is rolling out a one-of-a-kind product that should catch the attention of anyone wary of the market' steep run-up thus far on the year. The new actively-managed Athena International Bear ETF  began trading today and is the counterpart to the already successful Active Bear ETF which debuted at the start of 2011 .

Be Bearish, Globally

As its name suggests, HDGI is a short international equity fund that is constructed similarly to its predecessor HDGE. The portfolio management team, led by Dr. Thomas Howard, PhD, utilizes a behavioral factor driven investment process that measures manager behavior, strategy consistency and conviction, and identifies which stocks are held in top and bottom relative weight positions within the equity universe; short positions are then chosen from the lowest conviction holdings within the international universe.

HDGI's portfolio can range from 50 to 100 holdings, comprised of American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and international company stocks traded on U.S. exchanges. The methodology behind HDGI is deeply rooted in over 35 years of academic research and statistical validation, and as such, it offers a compelling opportunity to tap into a unique strategy that has historically been out-of-reach for the average self-directed investor .

The new fund maintains flexibility to invest in other ETFs as well as ETNs to achieve its objective of delivering short exposure to intentional equities. HDGI will have its net expense ratio capped at 1.50% for at least the first year of trading; while this cost is quite high, it does fall in-line with HDGE's current price tag of 1.85%.

Follow me on Twitter @SBojinov



Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.

What Is Driving Stocks Higher? - Ahead of Wall Street

Thursday, July 11, 2013

What did we see in Wednesday's Fed minutes and in the Bernanke speech afterwards that seem to have calmed the markets down? The dollar and treasury yields have eased a bit as a result and stocks are heading back towards new all-time highs.

There was nothing that was substantively new, but both the minutes as well as Bernanke went to great lengths to dial back expectations for the course of monetary policy - as a way to stem the rising tide of long-term interest rates. And as we have been seeing repeatedly over the last couple of weeks, the stock market seems to be liking what it is hearing from the Fed. The bond market still remains skeptical, though it appears to have a paused a bit as well.

The Fed minutes tried to emphasize that the decisions to start 'tapering' and hike Fed Funds rates were distinct and unrelated. In putting this gem of an insight into the minutes, the Fed was trying to make the point that 'tapering' didn't mean tightening. From the Fed's perspective, if they buy $65 billion bonds a month post 'tapering' instead of the current $85 billion, they are still easing.

The bond market and most of the other 'normal' people think otherwise. From the bond-market's perspective, 'tapering' amounted to the first shot in a gradual monetary policy normalization in which the Fed would first end the QE program and then start eying the Fed Funds rate. As a result, the bond market started rates higher, pushing it almost 100 basis points higher in less than two months.

The Fed appears to have been unnerved by the bond market's reaction and is trying its best to control it. Bernanke even went to the extent in his speech yesterday that the Fed could hold off on touching the Fed Funds rate for a very long time even after the unemployment rate fell to 6.5%, which was the Fed's prior target. We will see how all of this unfolds in the coming days and weeks. But at least for now, the stock market doesn't seem to b! e overly concerned by the jump in treasury yields and has no problem reclaiming its May peak despite substantially higher interest rates.

The stock market's response could be justified on grounds of improved economic growth and corporate earnings outlook. While consensus GDP growth estimates for 2013 Q2 are barely close +1%, the same for the second half of the year and next year show a lot more momentum.

The same picture emerges from consensus earnings estimates for the second half of the year. While total earnings growth is expected to be barely in the positive territory in Q2, they are expected jump by more than +5% in Q3 and more than +11% in Q4. For full year 2014, total earnings are expected to be up an additional +11.5%. We haven't heard much positive guidance for the coming quarters from the companies that have already reported Q2 results like Oracle (ORCL), FedEx (FDX), Accenture (ACN) and others. Financial firms typically don't provide forward guidance, but it will be interesting to see how J.P. Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) dealt with the sudden spike in interest rates in Q2. Both these banking leaders report before the open tomorrow.

But if recent history is any guide, then we should brace ourselves for another round of predominantly negative guidance this earnings season as well, causing estimates for Q3 and Q4 to start coming down. This trend has played out repeatedly over the last few quarters, with investors essentially shrugging negative estimate revisions each time. Market bulls believe that we will get a repeat performance this time around as well, with the stock market not losing even beat as estimates for the second half of the year and next year come down. May be the bulls are right and nothing will happen.

But forgive me for being a bit skeptical of these soothing voices. My sense is that the stock market is disregarding the jump in treasury yields because it is looking for strong earnings growth in the coming quarters. But earnings growth ! can't m! iraculously appear in the back half of the year or next year. With margins already at historical highs and revenue growth hard to come by in a growth-constrained world, double-digit earnings growth may firmly be in the rearview mirror. Investors bidding up stocks in hopes of strong earnings growth in the coming quarters are heading towards a disappointment.

Sheraz Mian
Director of Research



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Four Ps of Investing: Key to sound decision-making

Experts of marketing often talk about four P's of marketing which are product, price, place and promotion. Marketing decisions generally fall into these four controllable categories. What about investment decisions? Can there be a parallel drawn in investment decisions which will help make investments more controllable and productive? There is no doubt that investment decisions also have its own four Ps which is known to all of us but rarely followed. These four Ps are 1) Planning, 2) Patience,3) Performance and 4) Persistent. These four Ps are traits of investments which can help us achieve not just the financial goals but also make us get handsome returns from the market.

Let us look at the role of these four Ps in investments:

Planning: Without an iota of doubt, all investments need proper planning. Planning has various ingredients in it. It starts with setting of goals and continues till the time investment objectives are realized. This is to say that planning is not an adhoc decision but an ongoing process. In order to ensure that planning is successful, continuous monitoring is required which is meant to handle ongoing dynamics of market.

Patience: Patience always pays but nowhere has it paid as much as in investment. Though in the long run, we are all dead as per J.M. Keynes but for investments to prosper we need to have patience. Look at the stock market performance during last four years. Many investors would have lost patience because stock market has failed to perform but some investors have stayed by investing regularly in the market and are bound to reap benefits as market goes up. Some of the trends of upside movement are visible now.

Performance: Your investments should not only give returns but also perform well enough to meet your financial goals, Also as investors; we need to ensure that investments end up beating inflation. Inflation is a known enemy of investments and has got the natural ability to erode benefits of investments. It is important to ensure that performance is also measured against the risk of an investment. A risk free investment cannot give the same rate of return which an asset class like gold can give.

Persistent: In world of investments, never say die approach works. Look at systematic investment plans. Such approach works not only in mutual funds, but also in direct stock investments, investments in gold and other asset classes. We often become causal with investments and try to skip investments if the market conditions are not idle. Some of us also try to time the market. Timing market is indeed difficult and hence brings forward the need for been persistent in the market.

It is important to keep these four Ps in mind while making an investment decision which will create wealth for us and achieve our financial goals.

Is Southwest Too Expensive?

With shares of Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) trading at around $13.85, is LUV an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

C = Catalyst for the Stock's Movement

Southwest has enjoyed strong upward momentum over the past six months. Analysts also like the stock: 6 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell. The analyst mean target for Southwest is $15.42. These aren't the only positives.

According to Glassdoor.com, employees have rated their employer a 4.1 of 5, and 87 percent of employees would recommend the company to a friend. Therefore, the company culture is strong. Leadership is even more impressive as 90 percent of employees approve of CEO Gary C. Kelly.

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Southwest recently hiked its quarterly dividend by 400 percent and boosted its stock repurchase program to $1.5 billion from $1 billion. At the same time, cost savings have been good.

Yet another positive is that online traffic has slightly improved. According to Alexa.com, Southwest.com currently ranks at No. 807 on a Global scale, and at No. 162 in the United States. Over the past three months, pageviews-per-user has increased 0.6 percent to 6.32, time-on-site has increased 2 percent to 6:45, and the bounce rate (only one pageview per visit) has declined 8 percent to 12.3 percent. These are all positive signs.

On the negative side, there are many arguments that Southwest is too customer friendly. In other words, Southwest doesn't charge enough fees. This keeps customers happy, but it has the potential to lead to frustrated investors.

As far as valuation is concerned, Southwest is starting to get expensive. Its currently trading at 27 times earnings while only sporting a profit margin of 2.22 percent. Comparatively, Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) is trading at 17 times earnings and has a profit margin of 2.43 percent. JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ:JBLU) is trading at 18 times earnings and has a profit margin of 2.21 percent. This makes Delta the most appealing of the three from a fundamental standpoint. But what about dividends?

Southwest currently yields 1.20 percent whereas Delta yields 1.30 percent and JetBlue doesn’t offer any yield. Delta wins again. As far as stock performance is concerned, all three are up year-to-date, but Delta has been the most impressive. The chart on the next page will provide further details.

Let's take a look at some important numbers prior to forming an opinion on this stock.

T = Technicals Are Mixed

Southwest hasn’t performed well over the past month, but the trend is still to the upside.

	1 Month	Year-To-Date	1 Year	3 Year
LUV	-1.98%	35.65%	54.85%	15.83%
DAL	-0.33%	52.23%	79.98%	34.35%
JBLU	-6.07%	10.84%	25.05%	-2.46%

At $13.85, Southwest is trading below its 50-day SMA, but still above its 200-day SMA.

50-Day SMA	13.98
200-Day SMA	12.14

E = Equity to Debt Ratio Is Strong

The debt-to-equity ratio for Southwest is stronger than the industry average of 2.00.

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	Debt-To-Equity	Cash	Long-Term Debt
LUV	0.44	3.14B	3.04B
DAL	N/A	3.60B	12.99B
JBLU	1.49	849.00M	2.83B

E = Earnings Have Been Steady

Earnings have fluctuated on an annual basis, but they have been impressive, especially for an airline considering the industry’s history. Revenue has consistently improved over the past three years.

Fiscal Year	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Revenue ($) in millions	11,023	10,350	12,104	15,658	17,088
Diluted EPS ($)	0.24	0.13	0.61	0.23	0.56

Looking at the last quarter on a year-over-year basis, revenue increased 2.30 percent, but earnings declined 39.80 percent.

Quarter	Mar. 31, 2012	Jun. 30, 2012	Sep. 30, 2012	Dec. 31, 2012	Mar. 31, 2013
Revenue ($) in millions	3,991	4,616	4,309	4,173	4,084
Diluted EPS ($)	0.13	0.30	0.02	0.11	0.08

Now let's take a look at the next page for the Conclusion. Is this stock an OUTPERFORM, a WAIT AND SEE, or a STAY AWAY?

Conclusion

Southwest still has strong upward momentum. Delta offers a better valuation, a higher yield, and the stock has been outperforming Southwest over the past year. That said, with a weak consumer not seeming to gain much strength, fewer fees might be appealing at Southwest.

Top 5 Dividend Stocks To Own Right Now

It's official. Investors have begun to fear that interest rates will soon rise. Bond prices have increased and we've witnessed a sell-off of stocks. Is the party over for dividend-paying stocks?

Time to sweep up the confetti?
When interest rates are high, conservative investors can buy relatively safe securities, like government bonds, and live off the income they produce. When rates are low, as they've been during the past several years, the income investors receive drops sharply, making dividend-paying stocks much more attractive. So, with the recent belief that the U.S. economy is strengthening, should investors flee dividend-paying stocks?

In a word: no. The rise in rates won't happen overnight, and rates will need to rise significantly before dividend yields on stocks become unattractive. Right now, the average dividend yield of S&P 500 stocks stands at 2%, twice the yield of a five-year Treasury.

Top 5 Dividend Stocks To Own Right Now: Vivo Participacoes S.A.(VIV)

Telecomunicacoes de Sao Paulo S.A.-TELESP provides fixed-line telecommunications services to residential and commercial customers in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Its services include local voice services, such as activation, monthly subscription, measured service, and public telephones; intraregional, interregional, and international long-distance voice services; data services comprising broadband services; pay TV services through direct to home satellite technology and land based wireless technology multichannel multipoint distribution service; and network services, such as interconnection and rental of facilities, as well as other services consisting of extended maintenance, caller identification, voice mail, cell phone blockers, computer support, and antivirus for Internet service subscribers. The company also offers multimedia communication services, such as audio, data, voice and other sounds, images, and texts and other information. In addition, it provides interc onnection services to cellular service providers and other fixed telecommunications companies through the use of its network. Further, the company offers telecommunications solutions and IT support designed to address the needs and requirements of companies operating various types of industries, including retail, manufacturing, services, financial institutions, and government. Telecomunicacoes de Sao Paulo S.A.-TELESP provides its products and services through person-to-person sales, telesales, indirect channels, Internet, and door-to-door sales. As of December 31, 2010, its telephone network included 11.3 million fixed lines in service, including residential, commercial, and public telephone lines; 3.3 million broadband clients; and 0.5 million pay TV clients. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Telecomunicacoes de Sao Paulo S.A.-TELESP is a subsidiary of Telefonica S.A.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Kennedy]

  Vivo Participacoes (VIV) is acting within the wireless communications industry. The company has a market capitalization of $34.3 billion, generates revenues in an amount of $9.9 billion and a net income of $1.5 billion. It follows P/E ratio is 10.4 and forward price to earnings ratio 10.4, Price/Sales 3.5 and Price/Book ratio 2.4. Dividend Yield: 11.8 percent. The return on equity amounts to 21.6 percent.

Top 5 Dividend Stocks To Own Right Now: Frontier Communications Company(FTR)

Frontier Communications Corporation, a communications company, provides regulated and unregulated voice, data, and video services to residential, business, and wholesale customers in the United States. It offers local and long distance voice services, including basic telephone wireline services to residential and business customers; switched access services that allow other carriers to use the facilities to originate and terminate their long distance voice and data traffic; and directory services that provide white and yellow page directories for residential and business listings. The company also provides data and Internet services, which include residential services comprising high-speed Internet, dial up Internet, portal and e-mail products, and hard drive back-up services; and commercial and carriers services, such as metro Ethernet; dedicated Internet; Internet protocol, optical, multiprotocol label switching, and TDM data transport services. In addition, it offers di rect broadcast satellite services and fiber optic video services, as well as provides online access to video content, entertainment, and news available on the worldwide Web through its Web site myfitv.com. The company was formerly known as Citizens Communications Company and changed its name to Frontier Communications Corporation in July 2008. Frontier Communications Corporation was founded in 1927 and is based in Stamford, Connecticut.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Vita]

  Frontier Communications Corporation (FTR) a communications company, provides regulated and unregulated voice, data, and video services to residential, business, and wholesale customers in the United States. Between 2004 and 2010 the company paid a quarterly dividend of 25 cents/share. Last year however it cut the distribution rate by 25% to 18.75 cents/share. The company has been unable to cover its dividend out of earnings since 2006. More than two-thirds of its distributions are non-taxable as they are essentially a return of capital. Yield: 9.40%.

Top 10 Stocks To Invest In 2014: PPL Corporation(PPL)

PPL Corporation, an energy and utility holding company, generates and sells electricity; and delivers natural gas to approximately 5.3 million utility customers primarily in the northeastern and northwestern U.S. The company operates in four segments: Kentucky Regulated, International Regulated, Pennsylvania Regulated, and Supply. The Kentucky Regulated segment engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity; and the distribution and sale of natural gas to approximately 1.3 million customers in Kentucky, Virginia, and Tennessee. The International Regulated segment owns and operates electricity distribution businesses in the United Kingdom that deliver electricity to 7.7 million customers. The Pennsylvania Regulated segment delivers electricity to approximately 1.4 million customers in eastern and central Pennsylvania. The Supply segment owns and operates power plants to generate electricity using coal, uranium, natural gas, oil, and water res ources; markets and trades electricity and other purchased power to wholesale and retail markets; and acquires and develops domestic generation projects. It controls or owns a portfolio of generation assets of approximately 11,000 megawatts in Montana and Pennsylvania. As of December 31, 2010, the company?s distribution system included 649 substations with a capacity of 25 million kVA, 28,838 circuit miles of overhead lines, and 24,131 cable miles of underground conductors in the United Kingdom. It also operated 377 substations with a capacity of 31 million kVA, 33,122 circuit miles of overhead lines, and 7,368 cable miles of underground conductors in Pennsylvania. The company was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jonas Elmerraji]

  You can't build a dividend portfolio without looking at utility stocks—which brings us to PPL.

  PPL is a utility stock that owns 11,200 megawatts of generation capacity, and provides regulated utility service to electricity customers in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee and the UK. PPL also distributes natural gas to Kentucky. Just a few years ago PPL was primarily a generation firm, earning three-fourths of its profits by selling power on the open market. Today, though, the firm has shifted its strategy towards the stable income of the regulated utility business.

  Stable, predictable income is the hallmark of a stellar dividend stock, and PPL has managed to pick up its regulated exposure while still keeping its uniqueness. A big differentiator for PPL is its energy distribution unit in the UK—that expertise in a foreign market should open the door to other overseas utility operations if attractive opportunities present themselves down the road.

  Dividend growth at PPL is likely to cool in the next couple of years as the firm dumps considerable CapEx into upgrading its infrastructure. That's actually a good thing for dividend investors because it means that PPL's dividend prospects are going to be artificially held down in the near-term. With the firm's payout already at 4.87 percent, investors shouldn't have any trouble waiting a while for the next hike.

• [By Michael Brush]

  PPL (PPL) has a dividend yield of 5%.

  Utilities are the classic dividend play from your grandparents' day. They're still a good place to get yield.

  Wright says he favors PPL in part because the provider of electricity to customers in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Virginia and Tennessee is out of favor with investors. "Your risk/reward is not going to get much better than it is now."

  Electricity demand should increase as the economy picks up. And much of the revenue from increased sales will fall to the company's bottom line, because PPL generates power from lower-cost energy sources, particularly nuclear and coal.

Top 5 Dividend Stocks To Own Right Now: McDonald's Corporation(MCD)

McDonald?s Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a worldwide foodservice retailer. It franchises and operates McDonald?s restaurants that offer various food items, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages. As of December 31, 2009, the company operated 32,478 restaurants in 117 countries, of which 26,216 were operated by franchisees; and 6,262 were operated by the company. McDonald?s Corporation was founded in 1948 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Brian Gorban]

   Fast food giant and world-renowned company McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) is undoubtedly a name you’ve heard of, as “the golden arches” are ubiquitous--and with good reason: The company operates over 33,000 restaurants in 119 countries. With over $27 billion in revenue and a market capitalization near $90 billion, McDonald’s is simply a juggernaut and should continue to be a beneficiary of the global growth story happening predominately in the “BRIC” (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries in the years and decades to come.

  Of course, those countries have not been spared the current economic carnage and that has caused the company to miss the past two quarters’ consensus estimates, but that has created a buying opportunity. With the stock trading not far above its $83.31 52-week low, McDonald’s is now yielding an attractive 3.5% dividend yield, and with a low 54% payout ratio, look for the dividend to not only be safe but be raised in the near future. Add in the fact that the company has a comparatively and historically low 16x forward and trailing P/E, and I think MCD should serve investors well for the long-term while one can wait and happily collect the nice 3.5% dividend.

Top 5 Dividend Stocks To Own Right Now: Sysco Corporation(SYY)

Sysco Corporation, through its subsidiaries, distributes food and related products primarily to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry in North America and Europe. The company offers a line of frozen foods, such as meats, fully prepared entrees, fruits, vegetables, and desserts; a line of canned and dry foods; fresh meats, custom-cut fresh steaks, other meat, seafood, and poultry; dairy products; beverage products; imported specialties; and fresh produce. It also supplies various non-food items, including paper products, such as disposable napkins, plates, and cups; tableware, which include china and silverware; cookware comprising pots, pans, and utensils; restaurant and kitchen equipment and supplies; and cleaning supplies. In addition, the company offers personal care guest amenities, equipment, housekeeping supplies, room accessories, and textiles to the lodging industry. It serves restaurants, hospitals and nursing homes, schools and colleges, hotels and mote ls, lodging establishments, and other foodservice customers. Sysco Corporation was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Richard Young]

  America’s largest foodservice company is Sysco (NYSE:SYY), which operates out of 180 locations nationwide. Sysco serves around 400,000 customers including hospitals, schools, restaurants and hotels. My relative strength chart for Sysco shows a positive trend developing. Buy.

How To Break Your Bad Financial Habits

While the U.S. economy may be distinguished by contradictory data and trends, there is a perception that it is beginning to showcase tangible signs of growth. The statistics concerning consumer debt in the U.S. best reflect this expansion, with households managing to reduce their liability by 1% during the first financial quarter of 2013.

This drove cumulative household debt down to its lowest level since 2006, and has helped to dramatically improve the economic sentiment in the U.S. Tentative growth in the labor market has also created a more positive outlook among consumers, as the national rate of unemployment fell from 7.9% to 7.6% between January and April this year.

The Dangers Posed by Soaring Consumer Confidence
Questions concerning the validity of job market growth in the U.S. have provided cause for concern, however, especially in terms of its capacity to sustain the current rate of consumer spending. According to statistics released by the Department of Labor, low-paid temporary jobs accounted for more than 55% of the 175,000 employment positions created in May, as the ranks of the rising poor have continued to swell. Despite this, consumer confidence has soared from 69 to 81.4 during the second financial quarter, which suggests that some households may be spending disproportionately to the amounts that they earn and their long-term financial prospects.

With this in mind, it is important that consumers spend within their means and work hard to correct any errant financial behavior. If the current level of economic growth is to be maintained and improved upon, citizens must play their part by heeding the lessons that were taught by the Great Recession and subsequent periods of austerity.

Eliminate Emotion and Sentiment from Financial Decision Making
It is clear that improving economic sentiment has an impact on households, as it introduces emotion and impulse into the typical consumer's financial decision making. For individuals who like to indulge in emotional spending as a way of improving their mood or self-esteem, positive economic sentiment encourages them to act on impulse and purchase big-ticket or unnecessary items. As the current state of the U.S. economy proves, however, positive sentiment can be slightly misleading, as it may mask underlying issues in the labor and financial markets. It is therefore wise to make expenditure decisions based solely on your own financial circumstances, paying particular attention to your annual income, expenses, nature of employment and long-term fiscal goals.

Distinguish Between Actual Wealth and Credit
During the peak of the recent recession, revolving credit card debt accounted for approximately 98% of all household liability. While consumers have strived hard to diminish this debt and use their plastic wealth more responsibly, credit card borrowing has risen by $6.6 billion since May and even triggered a 4.1% rise in retail sales during the last month alone. This news is largely positive for the economy, although recent history suggests that today's consumers must make the clear distinction between corporeal wealth and credit if they are avoid incurring cyclical debt. More specifically, citizens should avoid making short-term credit card purchases that are disproportionate to their monthly salaries, as this ensures that they can repay their balance each month and avoid the accrual of long-term debt and interest.

Embrace a Frugal and Sustainable Lifestyle
There are often clear parallels between government and consumer spending during periods of recession, as harsh austerity measures may often be applied to compensate for spells of irresponsible and disproportionate spending. These two extremes are likely to trigger fluctuating periods of boom and bust in an economy, or leave households struggling to accumulate wealth and achieve long-term financial stability. There are some economies that may offer an example to consumers, however, with the Australian model renowned for its resilience and capacity to sustain growth during periods of stagnation. This was most evident during the recent recession, when banking institutions were managed conservatively and capital was invested into supporting long-term reforms rather than short-term solutions. Consumers can learn a lot from this, as responsible lending and the development of a long-term, frugal lifestyles can help to create financial security.

The Bottom Line
If the global economy is to achieve long-term growth and avoid the unenviable cycle of boom and bust, it is vital that government bodies and citizens heed the harsh lessons of the previous recession. The approach to spending is particularly important, especially among consumers who have previously borrowed money irresponsibly or spent outside of their existing means. By being responsible in their approach and basing spending decisions on relevant facts and personal circumstances, however, it is possible for citizens to correct their behavior and enjoy a more financially secure existence.

Is Towers Watson Making You Any Cash?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Towers Watson (NYSE: TW  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Towers Watson generated $345.0 million cash while it booked net income of $301.3 million. That means it turned 9.7% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Towers Watson look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 29.7% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Towers Watson investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 17.7% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 22.3% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Looking for alternatives to Towers Watson? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Towers Watson to My Watchlist.

Google Is No Pandora Killer

Shares of Pandora (NYSE: P  ) closed slightly lower on an otherwise upbeat trading day yesterday, and it's easy to see why.

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) finally introduced a new music streaming service, and Pandora -- for now -- watches over the country's most popular music streaming service.

Google All Access offers a bit of everything. It's a provider of personalized radio, just like Pandora and Sirius XM's (NASDAQ: SIRI  ) recently introduced MySXM. It's an on demand and playlist platform, just like Spotify.

Google is big. Google is smart. Google is rich. If streaming tunes is Big G's next hobby, how can Pandora survive?

Well, the most important thing working in Pandora's favor is price.

Google is really gunning for Spotify, with its identical $9.99 a month cover charge. Those signing up to Google Access between now and the end of June can lock in a $7.99 monthly rate.

Pandora is mostly consumed as a free application. Just 12% of Pandora's revenue is derived from subscriptions, and that translates into roughly 1% of Pandora's 70.1 million active monthly users. If that 99% majority was interested in paying up for a better streaming experience, don't you think that they would have already shelled out money to Pandora for ad-free music?

For once, Pandora's growing army of earbud-donning freeloaders is a good thing.

History has proven that there are two different types of music listeners. Would Sirius XM have grown to nearly 25 million premium subscribers if Pandora was enough? Would Pandora have seen its audience grow 35% since Spotify's arrival last year if money wasn't an issue? Google, Sirius XM, and Spotify have all thrived in this climate.

If anyone takes a hit here it would Spotify, with the similar model.

Pandora's fine -- for now.

The mobile revolution is still in its infancy, but with so many different companies, it can be daunting to know how to profit in the space. Fortunately, The Motley Fool has released a free report on mobile named, "The Next Trillion-Dollar Revolution," which tells you how. The report describes why this seismic shift will dwarf any other technology revolution seen before it, and also names the company at the forefront of the trend. You can access this report today by clicking here -- it's free.

Here's What This $37 Billion Money Manager Has Been Buying and Selling

Every quarter, many money managers have to disclose what they've bought and sold, via "13F" filings. Their latest moves can shine a bright light on smart stock picks.

Today let's look at Robeco Investment Management, which is a U.S.-focused subsidiary of major Netherlands-based financial institution Rabobank and which has three primary divisions: Boston Partners (value equity), Sage Capital (multi-manager strategies), and Weiss, Peck, & Greer (fixed income, equity, and alternatives). It has been in the news a bit lately, with Rabobank trying to sell its investment management business and some suitors, such as Australia's Macquarie Group, not wanting all of the U.S.-based business.

Robeco Investment Management touts its flat management structure and focus on value equity investing. The company's reportable stock portfolio totaled $36.8 billion in value as of March 31.

Interesting developments
So what does Robeco's latest quarterly 13F filing tell us? Here are a few interesting details.

The biggest new holdings are Liberty Media and AbbVie. Other new holdings of interest include The Active Network (NYSE: ACTV  ) , which specializes in online registrations for endurance events such as marathons and triathlons. The company recently signed a three-year deal with Ironman, and its most recent quarterly earnings report featured revenue up 12% and shrinking losses. Some have questioned the company's solvency, while others like its valuation.

Among holdings in which Robeco Investment Management increased its stake were American Capital Agency (NASDAQ: AGNC  ) and RF Micro Devices (NASDAQ: RFMD  ) . American Capital Agency is a mortgage REIT with a tantalizing dividend yield above 16%. The company's CEO is well respected, but some worry that mortgage REITs may lose a valuable tax advantage.

RF Micro Devices, specializing in high-performance radio-frequency technology, enjoyed an analyst upgrade in March, because of its successful diversification away from Nokia and its profitable growth in Samsung and Apple devices. Since then, the stock has hit a 52-week high, and some are hoping that it will do a lot of business in China. Its recently reported fourth quarter featured revenue up 49% over year-ago levels. Still, RF Micro Devices faces serious competition, such as from Qualcomm.

Robeco Investment Management reduced its stake in lots of companies, including Heckmann (NYSE: HEK  ) , which provides water-related services and chemicals for the growing (but controversial) fracking method of gas extraction. (It handles waste disposal, too, among other things.) Heckmann recently posted a disappointing earnings report, but management expects solid organic growth and sees pricing stabilizing.

Finally, Robeco's biggest closed positions included Starz and Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI  ) . Sirius did post disappointing earnings recently, but revenue and earnings are still growing at a double-digit rate, so things aren't that dire. In fact, a strong report from Ford bodes well for the company, as its radios are embedded in many vehicles, and many are bullish about the company's new personalized radio service, MySXM. It's worth noting that while Robeco sold out of Sirius, it added shares of the company's majority stakeholder, Liberty Media.

We should never blindly copy any investor's moves, no matter how talented the investor. But it can be useful to keep an eye on what smart folks are doing, and 13F forms can be great places to find intriguing candidates for our portfolios.

Even though Sirius XM is one of the market's biggest winners since bottoming out three years ago, there is still some healthy upside to be had if things go right for it -- and plenty of room for it to fall if things don't. Read all about Sirius in The Motley Fool's premium report. To get started, just click here now.

The Greatest Bull Market You're Hearing Nothing About

 It doesn't take long for a biotech bull market to gain weight...

 

For the past year, Stansberry & Associates has highlighted one of the greatest bull markets you don't hear about... which is the huge uptrend in biotechnology stocks.

 

Regular readers know that we consider biotech to be one of the greatest "boom and bust" sectors in the market. With its promise of individualized medicine, cancer cures, and miracle drugs, few sectors capture imaginations and speculative money as well as biotechnology.

 

As Steve Sjuggerud says, "If you catch just one biotech bull market in your lifetime, you may never have to work again."

 

Biotech stocks took a breather last November, but we told you "the long-term bull market is still in force." And last month, we showed you the biotech boom was still intact. Since that essay, 21 trading sessions have passed by. During that time, the double-long ProShares Ultra Biotechnology Fund (NASDAQ: BIB) has gained an amazing 22%...

 

 

What's driving this bull market?

 

Several impressive clinical results have boosted share prices... and ignited interest in the sector. Vertex, for example, is one of BIB's top 10 holdings. It recently reported positive data for a cystic fibrosis drug. Shares skyrocketed more than 60%. Other big names – like Gilead, Amgen, and Celgene – are hitting all-time highs.

 

If you've taken our advice and taken a position in biotech, stay long. Although the sector is a little "overextended" to the upside... and although it has registered huge gains in the past year, we need to keep in mind that biotech bull markets often run much, much higher than anyone thinks possible.

 

Also, few people are talking about biotechnology. This bull market is not front-page news... But it will be.

 

 On the subject of "big trends" that we discussed last month, a more conservative trend we like is also taking off. It's the uptrend in insurance stocks.

 

Our colleague Porter Stansberry has done a fantastic job educating readers on how great the insurance business can be. These companies collect premiums from their customers. If they're good at what they do, the premiums exceed what they'll end up paying out in claims. And in the meantime, they get to invest all that money and earn more profits.

 

As Porter recently explained in DailyWealth, insurance companies get paid to use capital... and "that's a fantastic way to become very wealthy." That's why he calls it the "best business in the world."

 

The "set it and forget it" diversified vehicle of choice here is the iShares Insurance Fund (NYSE: IAK). This fund holds large insurance stocks like AIG, Travelers, MetLife, and Progressive.

 

Last week, AIG announced its first-quarter results. It said all the right things for Wall Street... and the stock popped 6% to reach a 52-week high. This helped lift IAK to a fresh multiyear high.

 

 

As we expected, it's a bull market in insurance... so stay long.

 

– Brian Hunt

Top 5 Gold Stocks To Buy Right Now

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at GLD and see what CAPS investors are saying about the ETF right now.

GLD facts

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Inception	Nov. 2004
Total Net Assets	$57.2 billion
Investment Approach	Seeks to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of the price of gold bullion. The trust holds gold, and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of baskets. Top 5 Gold Stocks To Buy Right Now: Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.(TC) Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in mining, milling, processing, and marketing molybdenum products in the United States and Canada. The company?s principal properties include the Thompson Creek Mine and mill in Idaho; a metallurgical roasting facility in Langeloth, Pennsylvania; and a joint venture interest in the Endako Mine, mill, and roasting facility in British Columbia. It also holds interests in development projects comprising the Davidson molybdenum property and the Berg copper-molybdenum-silver property located in northern British Columbia; the Howard?s Pass property, a lead and zinc project situated in the Yukon territory-northwest territories border; and the Maze Lake property, a gold project located in the Kivalliq district of Nunavut. The company produces molybdenum products, primarily molybdic oxide and ferromolybdenum, as well as soluble technical oxide, pure molybdenum tri-oxide, and high purity molybdenum disulfide. As o f December 31, 2010, its consolidated recoverable proven and probable ore reserves totaled 462.2 million pounds of contained molybdenum in the Thompson Creek Mine and the Endako Mine. The company was formerly known as Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. and changed its name to Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. in May 2007. Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. is based in Denver, Colorado. Advisors' Opinion: [By Christopher Barker] My recent survey of bargain-basement stock valuations among gold miners identified Thompson Creek Metals as a glaring opportunity for value investors. The miner sports two world-class molybdenum mines with 534 million pounds of reserves between them, along with an array of attractive development projects in the pipeline. Foremost among those is the Mt. Milligan copper and gold project, where Thompson Creek expects to launch itself into the ranks of intermediate gold producers with production commencing in late 2013. With 6 million ounces of gold reserves, accompanied by 2.1 billion pounds of copper, Mt. Milligan will deliver about 262,100 ounces of gold per year for the first six years of a 22-year mine life, averaging 194,500 ounces annually over that entire span. Although 25% of that gold production is already spoken for through a gold stream agreement with Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD  ) , Thompson Creek Metals is sure to enjoy a powerful cash-flow explosion. Top 5 Gold Stocks To Buy Right Now: Goldcorp Incorporated(GG) Goldcorp Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of precious metal properties in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Central and South America. It produces and sells gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. Advisors' Opinion: [By Rahemtulla] Headquartered in the Olympic venue of Vancouver, GoldCorp (GG) is one of the largest precious-metal mining companies in the world. GG operates mainly in Canada and South America, and produces more than 2.3 million ounces of gold annually, and has about 45 million ounces in proved and probable reserves. But don’t be fooled by the name — GoldCorp also owns 1.2 billion ounces of proved and probable silver reserves and 1.4 billion pounds of copper reserves. Every investor is aware of gold’s record run recently, but that’s just one reason I’m bullish on GG. Silver and copper prices have been on a tear lately, and the diverse mining operations of GoldCorp make it a great investment right now no matter what happens with gold. [By Christopher Barker] Every ship needs an anchor, and for gold investors looking to navigate the admittedly rough seas of the gold mining industry, I can think of no greater anchor than Goldcorp. With the important caveat that some of the company's substantial challenges faced during 2012 could present further selling pressure in early 2013 as forward production guidance takes a bit of a haircut, I agree with Credit Suisse analyst Anita Soni that any such weakness may present a meaningful buying opportunity. I won't go into great detail here, since investors can access my premium research report on Goldcorp for further discussion of the substantial long-term investment opportunity in the shares of this quality producer. [By Smith] Although its name does little to denote this, Goldcorp is a well-positioned silver play for 2011, according to the analysts we surveyed. “The name is one that people tend to think of it as gold, but it's in the top 20 of silver producers globally with about 13 million ounces a year ,” says Peter Sorrentino of Huntington Funds. Morningstar analyst Min Tang-Varner recently raised her fair value estimate for Goldcorp by $12 a share to $48 after the company reported a 28 per cent rise in revenue for the third quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with the year before. This, despite 4 per cent decline gold production, as revenue received a boost from $1,239/oz realized gold prices and $19.15/oz silver prices. Tang-Varner tells investors that the reduction of Goldcorp's cash cost by $100/oz from the prior quarter to $260/oz due to higher silver, copper and zinc production and the run-up in their prices, was “rather extraordinary.” Sorrentino says Goldcorp is a stock that investors would be “wise to consider” if they were looking for a name that would be discovered suddenly as a major silver play, without feeling that they were overpaying for it. Goldcorp also prices everything that it does in Canadian dollars, which should reduce currency risks for investors in Canada. [By Mel Daris] Goldcorp (GG), from Vancouver, has mines from Canada down to Argentina. Its stock trades for $40 and its dividend yields 1.30%. Its P/E is a pricey 18.33. Goldcorp had net income $1.6 billion and negative cash flow of $300 million. Its net tangible assets have grown from -$2.4 billion in 2009 to nearly $20 billion last year. The miner produced 2.51 million ounces of gold last year and expects to produce more than 2.60 million ounces this year at a target of $1,600 per ounce. Cost will range from $250 to $600 per ounce. Goldcorp is targeting 70% growth by 2016. 5 Best Safest Stocks For 2014: Northgate Minerals Corporation(NXG) Northgate Minerals Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploring, developing, processing, and mining gold and copper deposits in Canada and Australia. Its principal producing assets include 100% interests in the Fosterville and Stawell Gold mines in Victoria, Australia; and the Kemess South mine located in north-central British Columbia, Canada. The company was formerly known as Northgate Exploration Limited and changed its name to Northgate Minerals Corporation in May 2004. Northgate Minerals Corporation was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. Advisors' Opinion: [By Christopher Barker] I've been reminding Fools to consider positioning for Northgate Minerals' golden explosion for months, and patient gold investors continue to await the day when Northgate's powerful prospects are more fully reflected in the shares. Construction of the critical Young-Davidson mine continues right on schedule, and first production now stands about two quarters away. That means Northgate is reasonably likely to achieve its 2012 production target of 300,000 ounces, followed by 350,000 ounces in 2013. Meanwhile, Northgate recently drilled "one of the best holes ever intersected on the property" -- featuring 4.31 grams of gold per ton over a very wide 79.6-meter segment -- from a new discovery zone outside of the existing 2.8 million-ounce reserve. If Young-Davidson were Northgate's sole asset, these shares would still be undervalued here at about $2.60 per share. With a preliminary assessment looming for the reworked Kemess Underground project, a new drill program at the Awakening Gold project in Nevada, and two operating gold mines in Australia, Northgate figures among the clearest bargains in the gold patch. [By Cutler] Northgate Minerals Ltd Common (AMEX:NXG): This equity had 11,186,665 shares sold short as of Aug 31st, as compared to 12,721,260 on Aug 15th, which represents a change of -1,534,595 shares, or -12.1%. Days to cover for this company is 2 and average daily trading volume is 6,342,426. About the equity: Northgate Minerals Corporation is a gold and copper mining company. The Company has mines in areas of Canada and Australia. [By Barker] I'm not the only Fool who perceives compelling value in the shares of this 90-year-old gold company. My colleague Andrew Sullivan made Northgate his inaugural selection within the Fool's Rising Star Portfolio Series. With anticipated production from Young-Davidson beginning in early 2012, and consistent exploration success at multiple properties, I consider this recently stagnant stock among the clearest rising stars in the gold patch. Top 5 Gold Stocks To Buy Right Now: First Majestic Silver Corp.(AG) First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the production, development, exploration, and acquisition of mineral properties with a focus on silver in Mexico. The company owns interests in La Encantada Silver Mine comprising 4,076 hectares of mining rights and 1,343 hectares of surface land located in Coahuila; La Parrilla Silver Mine consisting of mining concessions covering an area of 69,867 hectares; and San Martin Silver Mine comprising approximately 7,841 hectares of mineral rights and approximately 1,300 hectares of surface land rights located in Jalisco. It also holds interests in Del Toro Silver Mine consisting of 393 contiguous hectares of mining claims and an additional 129 hectares of surface rights located in Zacatecas; Real de Catorce Silver Project comprising 22 mining concessions covering 6,327 hectares located in San Luis Potosi state; and Jalisco Group of Properties consisting of mining claims totalling 5,240 hectares located in Jalisco. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. Advisors' Opinion: [By Sy_Harding] First Majestic Silver is one of the purest silver plays on the market. The company owns and operates three primary silver mines in Mexico: La Parrilla, San Martin, and La Encantada. Shares of AG have risen more than 60% for the year. First Majestic generates 85% of its revenue through the production and sale of silver. The rest of the company's revenue is generated through gold, lead, and zinc. First Majestic expects to increase total silver output from its operations to 7.5 million ounces of silver in 2011, and up to 16.0 million ounces by 2014. [By Goodwin] The shares closed at $88.19, down $1.1, or 1.23%, on the day. Its market capitalization is $77.08 billion. About the company: Siemens AG manufactures a wide range of industrial and consumer products. The Company builds locomotives, traffic control systems, automotive electronics, and engineers electrical power plants. Siemens also provides public and private communications networks, computers, building control systems, medical equipment, and electrical components. The Company operates worldwide. Top 5 Gold Stocks To Buy Right Now: Iamgold Corporation(IAG) IAMGOLD Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral resource properties worldwide. It primarily explores for gold, silver, zinc, copper, niobium, diamonds, and other metals. The company holds interests in eight operating gold mines, a niobium producer, a diamond royalty, and exploration and development projects located in Africa and the Americas. Its advanced exploration and development projects include the Westwood project in Canada; and the Quimsacocha project, which consists of 3 mining concessions covering an aggregate area of approximately 8,030 hectares in Ecuador. The company was formerly known as IAMGOLD International African Mining Gold Corporation and changed its name to IAMGOLD Corporation in June 1997. IAMGOLD Corporation was founded in 1990 and is based in Toronto, Canada. Advisors' Opinion: [By Christopher Barker] Although I have not shed my long-standing contention that Yamana Gold offers one of the more deeply discounted vehicles for long-term gold exposure, lately my outlook for IAMGOLD has turned particularly bullish. With a looming spin-off of a 10% to 20% stake in the company's reliably profitable Niobec niobium mine, and the recent sale of its interest in a pair of high-cost gold operations in Ghana for $667 million, IAMGOLD finds itself in terrific financial shape to execute an aggressive $1.2 billion expansion imitative at existing operations. Considering the $1.6 billion net asset value (after tax) that IAMGOLD recently assessed for the Niobec mine alone, and a presumed hoard of more than $1.2 billion (in cash, cash equivalents, and gold bullion held for investment), at a market capitalization of $6.9 billion I find extreme comfort in the market's resulting valuation for IAMGOLD's 15.2 million ounces of attributable gold reserves. Saturday, August 3, 2013 10 Companies Pioneering Green Energy Usage There aren't many people who will suggest that Kohl's Department Stores (NYSE: KSS  ) is a subversive threat to our existence as we know it. Lucky for you, dear reader, I am one of them. As our elected officials and fossil fuel lobbyists engage in never-ending battles to ensure we maintain our energy status quo, many corporations are quietly making big investments to brighten our energy future. Today I'm looking at the top 10 finishers on the Environmental Protection Agency's Green Power Partnership list. The agency ranks 50 entities, and you can see the whole list here. The leaders The EPA's rankings are based on three factors: renewable energy certificates, on-site generation, and utility green power products. The top 10 organizations on the EPA's list are as follows: Rank Company Green Power 1 Intel (NASDAQ: INTC  ) 100% 2 Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) 80% 3 Kohl's Department Stores 105% 4 Whole Foods 107% 5 Wal-Mart 4% 6 U.S. DOE 14% 7 Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS  ) 101% 8 Starbucks* 70% 9 Lockheed Martin 30% 10 Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) 85% Source: EPA. *Company-owned stores only. The ranking criteria explain why a company like Wal-Mart can rank fifth, despite generating only 4% of its electricity usage from green power. The company ranks first in the nation for on-site green power generation, producing more than 174 million kilowatt hours on-site. Greenest of the green According to the EPA, Intel's green power usage has the environmental equivalent of taking 455,000 cars off the road every year. The company generates on-site solar power at several facilities, but it purchases 3.1 billion kilowatt hours a year of renewable energy certificates. Now would be an excellent time to remind ourselves what renewable energy certificates are. From the EPA: "A REC ... represents the property rights to the environmental, social, and other nonpower qualities of renewable electricity generation. A REC, and its associated attributes and benefits, can be sold separately from the underlying physical electricity associated with a renewable-based generation source." Essentially, when producers generate renewable energy, they create one REC for every 1,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity that hits the grid. The RECs can either be sold with the electricity, or separately. If sold separately, the electricity is no longer considered "green." The system allows for the tracking of renewable generation, and for customers to buy "green" electricity when there isn't any available locally. You can read more about RECs here. Runners-up Microsoft has reduced its carbon emissions by at least 30% compared with its baseline 2007 emissions. The company is now committed to achieving carbon-neutrality, an ambitious goal if there ever was one, especially for a tech company. Kohl's is a bit of a teacher's pet when it comes to the EPA. It has been listed as the Green Partner of the Year three times since 2009. The company uses on-site solar panels to generate 2% of its electricity, and purchases the rest of its green power. Whole Foods has solar systems at 16 locations, with 20 more on the way. The company also has four locations with a fuel cell. Perhaps more importantly, Whole Foods has initiated energy efficiency upgrades to its facilities that save upwards of 20 million kilowatt hours every year. You can read about the minimum efficiency standards it uses in new construction here, and the extreme importance of energy efficiency here. Staples is one of those big-box stores that make people nervous, but it's making all the right moves from an energy perspective. The company has 36 on-site solar installations and has made incredibly impressive efforts to cut energy use, including a 11.3% companywide reduction in energy intensity, and a 66% reduction in carbon emissions from its 2001 baseline. Starbucks' company-owned stores are focused on efficiency and supporting the green power market. The company's goal is to purchase RECs to cover 100% of its stores' electricity use by 2015. It is currently at the 70% mark. Lockheed Martin is quickly making its name as a player in the energy space. It's on the EPA's list because it's constructing energy-efficient buildings and constructing on-site renewable projects. It's on my list because in an effort to diversify its business mix outside of government contracts, it's stepping up its energy innovation projects in a big way. Apple generates 16% of its energy use on-site. It also purchases energy via RECs and through partnerships with utilities. It is perhaps the most proactive when it comes to pushing for green energy development, pursuing projects that need Apple's involvement to be developed and brought to market in the first place. The company recently announced that 75% of its corporate facilities and data centers are powered by renewables. Foolish takeaway These companies aren't going green to do us a favor, Fools. There are powerful business forces at work here. As investors, knowing which companies are making efforts to cut down energy costs and improve efficiency gives us a head start in our research to find innovative, forward-thinking investment opportunities. This is just the first wave; expect more and more companies to focus on greener, cleaner energy going forward. There's no doubt that Apple is at the center of technology's largest revolution ever and that longtime shareholders have been handsomely rewarded, with more than 1,000% gains. However, there is a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on both reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple and what opportunities are left for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now. 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